1121 Fawn Run · Pocono Mountain Lake Estates, PA 18324

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1971 0.65 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED!! The Pocono lifestyle awaits! Nestled in the trees in the charming community of Pocono Mt Lake Estates, this 3 bedroom ranch offers room to expand on its double lot. It is close enough to the pool complex to walk. There is a large screen porch which can be further enclosed for year round use. The hot tub on the wrap around deck makes out door living more special. There is a nice lake, beach with pavilion and tables; indoor and out door pool and security in this community. A quick 3 minutes away is incredible fishing and hunting in the Delaware national park recreation area. Owner has proof on the walls in the living room!! Come visit. You won't be disappointed.

Key facts

• Heated sunroom
• Timber-beam ceilings
• Knotty pine walls

Tags

• TIMBER-BEAM CEILINGS
• KNOTTY PINE WALLS
• HEATED SUNROOM
• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• NEW ANDERSEN WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessible approach with ramp and accessible entrance; Porches and decks including rear porch, wrap-around porch, enclosed/glass-enclosed porch and deck; Porch features include storm doors and sliding doors; Road is private and privately maintained (paved)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($1,200 / $100 monthly equivalent); Community amenities include clubhouse, indoor pool, outdoor pool, basketball court and other facilities

Exterior

• Parking: 4 total parking spaces; Open paved parking, driveway and off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family house; Faces southeast; Raised foundation
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Level lot with front and back yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven / range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wood stove; Electric heating; Ceiling fans; Wall cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Beamed ceilings; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Living room wood-burning free-standing fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry on main level (in hall)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,507 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.80%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $43,836
• Equity at exit: $95,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $129,640
• Equity at exit: $152,018

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,742/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,848

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $337	-5% $281	+0% $224	+5% $167	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $140	+0% $224	+5% $308	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $275	base $224	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $199,900 Active
2. 2018-02-02
   soldstatus $70,000
3. 2018-01-26
   soldstatus $70,000 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED!! The Pocono lifestyle awaits! Nestled in the trees in the charming community of Pocono Mt Lake Estates, this 3 bedroom ranch offers room to expand on its double lot. It is close enough to the pool complex to walk. There is a large screen porch which can be further enclosed for year round use. The hot tub on the wrap around deck makes out door living more special. There is a nice lake, beach with pavilion and tables; indoor and out door pool and security in this community. A quick 3 minutes away is incredible fishing and hunting in the Delaware national park recreation area. Owner has proof on the walls in the living room!! Come visit. You won't be disappointed.

4. 2017-07-25
   listed $75,000 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED!! The Pocono lifestyle awaits! Nestled in the trees in the charming community of Pocono Mt Lake Estates, this 3 bedroom ranch offers room to expand on its double lot. It is close enough to the pool complex to walk. There is a large screen porch which can be further enclosed for year round use. The hot tub on the wrap around deck makes out door living more special. There is a nice lake, beach with pavilion and tables; indoor and out door pool and security in this community. A quick 3 minutes away is incredible fishing and hunting in the Delaware national park recreation area. Owner has proof on the walls in the living room!! Come visit. You won't be disappointed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,742 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,950 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,742
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$112
• After-tax cash flow: $2,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Mountain Lake Estates

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1507
• US rank: #19519

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Mountain Lake Estates, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+166.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $199,900 PMAR
• 2018-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-26 Sold (MLS) $70,000 PMAR
• 2017-07-25 Listed $75,000 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,742 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.