12953 Kelly Dr · Rhome, TX 76078

$360,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2011 6,273 sqft lot $124/sqft · 6% above area Est $340k · 6% over $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in the desirable Shale Creek community—where space, community, and lifestyle come together beautifully! Situated on a premium corner lot backing to peaceful green space, this home offers both privacy and scenic views. Just steps away, enjoy the neighborhood lake for fishing, along with a true sense of community—block parties, gatherings, and even the freedom to enjoy fireworks celebrations. Inside, you’ll find a light and open layout with brand new carpet and fresh paint, making this home completely move-in ready. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs and features a relaxing garden tub, separate tiled shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious game room, four additional bedrooms—all with walk-in closets—and two full bathrooms, giving everyone their own space. Step outside to a large back porch built for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings, whether it’s morning coffee or evening gatherings. Shale Creek offers fantastic amenities including a clubhouse, pool, playground, and fitness center, all within the highly sought-after Northwest ISD. With easy access to shopping, dining, and the speedway, this home truly has it all. If you’re looking for space, upgrades, and a vibrant community—this is the one! ***Lender Incentive $3,600 with preferred lender***

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• Neighborhood lake
• Clubhouse

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• PEACEFUL GREEN SPACE
• NEIGHBORHOOD LAKE
• LARGE BACK PORCH
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-542 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.7% in Rhome — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#165 in TX, #4,376 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,264 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,512
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: 6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12953 Kelly Dr	0.00mi	5/3.5	2,910 (0%)	0mo	$360,000	$124	98
12339 Orloff Dr	0.06mi	5/2.5	3,049 (+5%)	6mo	$360,000	$118	83
12414 Worthington Ln	0.16mi	5/3.5	2,910 (0%)	10mo	$345,000	$119	82
12225 Big Rock Dr	0.11mi	5/3.5	2,983 (+2%)	24mo	$360,000	$121	69
12417 Arbor Lake Rd	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,017 (+4%)	7mo	$349,900	$116	67
12809 Azure Heights Pl	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,044 (+5%)	22mo	$370,000	$122	60
12350 Orloff Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,558 (-12%)	12mo	$349,995	$137	59
12433 Worthington Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,558 (-12%)	12mo	$325,000	$127	58
12020 Shine Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,543 (-13%)	0mo	$300,000	$118	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $161,732
• Equity at exit: $324,317

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $503,780
• Equity at exit: $699,401

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$636 /mo · $7,628/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,440

Max offer price $264,264

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12221 Big Rock Dr Rhome, TX	4.0	2.5	2558	$2,395	$0.94	24d	1	0.12mi
12417 Worthington Ln Rhome, TX	5.0	3.5	2911	$3,000	$1.03	43d	1	0.13mi
16000 Isles Dr , TX	4.0	3.0	2673	$2,500	$0.94	24d	1	0.86mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	12d	1	0.90mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	43d	1	1.00mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	43d	1	1.06mi
16721 Porterfield Ln Justin, TX	5.0	3.0	2770	$2,800	$1.01	43d	1	1.13mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	12d	1	1.24mi
820 Forestdale Ct Haslet, TX	4.0	2.5	2766	$2,700	$0.98	43d	1	1.37mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1418 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in the desirable Shale Creek community—where space, community, and lifestyle come together beautifully! Situated on a premium corner lot backing to peaceful green space, this home offers both privacy and scenic views. Just steps away, enjoy the neighborhood lake for fishing, along with a true sense of community—block parties, gatherings, and even the freedom to enjoy fireworks celebrations. Inside, you’ll find a light and open layout with brand new carpet and fresh paint, making this home completely move-in ready. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs and features a relaxing garden tub, separate tiled shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious game room, four additional bedrooms—all with walk-in closets—and two full bathrooms, giving everyone their own space. Step outside to a large back porch built for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings, whether it’s morning coffee or evening gatherings. Shale Creek offers fantastic amenities including a clubhouse, pool, playground, and fitness center, all within the highly sought-after Northwest ISD. With easy access to shopping, dining, and the speedway, this home truly has it all. If you’re looking for space, upgrades, and a vibrant community—this is the one! ***Lender Incentive $3,600 with preferred lender***

2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Option Contract 1418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1418 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in the desirable Shale Creek community—where space, community, and lifestyle come together beautifully! Situated on a premium corner lot backing to peaceful green space, this home offers both privacy and scenic views. Just steps away, enjoy the neighborhood lake for fishing, along with a true sense of community—block parties, gatherings, and even the freedom to enjoy fireworks celebrations. Inside, you’ll find a light and open layout with brand new carpet and fresh paint, making this home completely move-in ready. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs and features a relaxing garden tub, separate tiled shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious game room, four additional bedrooms—all with walk-in closets—and two full bathrooms, giving everyone their own space. Step outside to a large back porch built for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings, whether it’s morning coffee or evening gatherings. Shale Creek offers fantastic amenities including a clubhouse, pool, playground, and fitness center, all within the highly sought-after Northwest ISD. With easy access to shopping, dining, and the speedway, this home truly has it all. If you’re looking for space, upgrades, and a vibrant community—this is the one! ***Lender Incentive $3,600 with preferred lender***

3. 2026-04-07
   listed $360,000 Active 1418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1418 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in the desirable Shale Creek community—where space, community, and lifestyle come together beautifully! Situated on a premium corner lot backing to peaceful green space, this home offers both privacy and scenic views. Just steps away, enjoy the neighborhood lake for fishing, along with a true sense of community—block parties, gatherings, and even the freedom to enjoy fireworks celebrations. Inside, you’ll find a light and open layout with brand new carpet and fresh paint, making this home completely move-in ready. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs and features a relaxing garden tub, separate tiled shower, and walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious game room, four additional bedrooms—all with walk-in closets—and two full bathrooms, giving everyone their own space. Step outside to a large back porch built for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings, whether it’s morning coffee or evening gatherings. Shale Creek offers fantastic amenities including a clubhouse, pool, playground, and fitness center, all within the highly sought-after Northwest ISD. With easy access to shopping, dining, and the speedway, this home truly has it all. If you’re looking for space, upgrades, and a vibrant community—this is the one! ***Lender Incentive $3,600 with preferred lender***

4. 2024-02-22
   historical $2,600
5. 2024-01-09
   price $2,600
6. 2023-11-28
   price $2,750
7. 2023-10-12
   listed $2,800
8. 2023-09-28
   historical
9. 2023-08-23
   price $385,500
10. 2023-08-23
    status Active
11. 2023-08-07
    status Pending
12. 2023-07-27
    historical Active Option Contract
13. 2023-06-21
    price $399,500
14. 2023-06-10
    price $410,000
15. 2023-06-02
    price $420,000
16. 2023-05-04
    listed $425,000 Active
17. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus
18. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2021-11-09
    historical Active Option Contract
20. 2021-11-03
    listed $330,000 Active
21. 2018-08-17
    soldstatus
22. 2018-08-14
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2018-08-06
    status Pending
24. 2018-07-30
    historical Active Option Contract
25. 2018-07-27
    listed $225,000 Active
26. 2012-02-23
    soldstatus Closed
27. 2012-01-27
    status Pending
28. 2012-01-18
    price $176,320
29. 2012-01-04
    price $160,820
30. 2011-12-01
    listed $166,820 Active
31. 2011-10-17
    historical
32. 2011-08-11
    status Pending
33. 2011-05-20
    listed $192,820 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,628 · $636/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,628 · $636/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$7,628
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,644
• − Management: −$2,644
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$12,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,080
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rhome

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #4376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.7% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $360,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-22 Rental Removed $2,600 NTREIS
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $2,600 NTREIS
• 2023-11-28 Price Changed $2,750 NTREIS
• 2023-10-12 Listed for Rent $2,800 NTREIS
• 2023-09-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-08-23 Price Changed $385,500 NTREIS
• 2023-08-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-08-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-07-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-06-21 Price Changed $399,500 NTREIS
• 2023-06-10 Price Changed $410,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-02 Price Changed $420,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-04 Listed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-11-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-11-03 Listed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2018-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-08-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-07-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-07-27 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2012-02-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-01-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-01-18 Price Changed $176,320 NTREIS
• 2012-01-04 Price Changed $160,820 NTREIS
• 2011-12-01 Listed $166,820 NTREIS
• 2011-10-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-08-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2011-05-20 Listed $192,820 NTREIS

Property tax history

+21.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,628 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.