7000 Mackenzie Ct NE · Otsego, MN 55330

$429,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,988 sqft · Other · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ask how you can receive up to $5,000 in closing costs when using D. R. Horton’s preferred lender! The Rushmore floor plan is functional floor plan and located on large cul-de-sac homesite. The home features 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 3 car garage and a finished lookout lower level with a spacious family room, bedroom and full bathroom! You'll be amazed with the vaulted ceilings in the family room, spacious kitchen, stainless steel appliances and quartz counter tops. Minutes from I94 for easy commuting, minutes from Albertville Premium Outlet Malls for easy shopping and minutes from a variety of entertainment and dining. COSTCO coming soon just minutes down the road! No neighborhood HOA.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Otsego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 457 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $298,598 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-80,636
• Equity at exit: $64,113

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-84,960
• Equity at exit: $37,178

Cash invested: $120,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55330

• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,120/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,199

Max offer price $400,226

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-47	+0% $-168	+5% $-290	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-286	+0% $-168	+5% $-51	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-59	base $-168	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,498
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7535 Lannon Ave NE Albertville, MN	5.0	3.0	2209	$3,179	$1.44	0d	1	0.66mi
7712 Lachman Ave NE Albertville, MN	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,259	$1.48	0d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $429,990
3. 2026-02-11
   listed $437,990 Active
4. 2026-02-02
   historical
5. 2026-02-02
   listed $485,000
6. 2023-11-03
   soldstatus $1,680,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,968 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,848/yr (+$154/mo · 165.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,086
• − Property taxes: −$1,120
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,867
• − Management: −$2,867
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$9,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,344
• After-tax cash flow: $322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,721
• Household income: $115,761
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.46%
• Current HPI: 241.3028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-74.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $429,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $437,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $485,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,680,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+219.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,120 · +311.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.