1406 Centerline Dr · Josephine, TX 75173

$353,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,895 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 2025 9,000 sqft lot $187/sqft · 15% below area Est $418k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION in Meadow Ridge Estates! The Laurel I delivers 1,895 sq ft of open-concept living with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage. Completion August 2026.This bright, airy home features an expansive living room flooded with natural light - perfect for entertaining. The well-appointed kitchen includes a charming breakfast nook for casual dining. The spacious primary suite boasts a generously-sized closet with ample storage. This thoughtfully designed floor plan maximizes space and functionality throughout. Meadow Ridge Estates offers exceptional value with NO HOA fees and NO MUD-PID taxes. Enjoy community sidewalks and top-rated schools in Community ISD. * Rendering is photo-realistically enhanced for visualization purposes, and attached photos are representative of the floorplan and may show non-standard features and options. Please see community's New Home Consultant for more details.

Key facts

• New construction
• Community sidewalks
• Open-concept living

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• CHARMING BREAKFAST NOOK
• GENEROUSLY-SIZED CLOSET
• COMMUNITY SIDEWALKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $354k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-836 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (42.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (42.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $203,787 (42.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.13%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,616
• List price: $353,990
• Delta: -15.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1402 Centerline Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-14%)	2mo	$309,990	$191	73
306 Timber Ridge Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,160 (+14%)	3mo	$419,900	$194	64
1700 Rolling Meadow Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,105 (+11%)	4mo	$364,995	$173	61
1476 Meadowbrook Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,007 (+6%)	13mo	$425,000	$212	55
1865 County Road 596	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,727 (-9%)	12mo	$600,000	$347	54
300 Concord Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,095 (+11%)	2mo	$297,990	$142	52
817 Lexington	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-14%)	12mo	$255,990	$156	44
819 Lexington	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,095 (+11%)	10mo	$273,990	$131	43
900 Lexington Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (-4%)	17mo	$254,990	$140	43
2010 Creekview Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,054 (+8%)	11mo	$425,000	$207	39
835 Lexington	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-9%)	16mo	$305,990	$178	36
904 Lexington Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-9%)	19mo	$289,990	$169	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $139,551
• Equity at exit: $318,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $452,908
• Equity at exit: $687,725

Cash invested: $99,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,856
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,310/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,097

Max offer price $232,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-592	-5% $-714	+0% $-836	+5% $-959	+10% $-1,081
Rent	-10% $-997	-5% $-917	+0% $-836	+5% $-756	+10% $-675
Rate	-1.0pp $-658	-0.5pp $-746	base $-836	+0.5pp $-928	+1.0pp $-1,021

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,498
• Closing costs: $10,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	1.17mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	1.23mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	1.23mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	46d	1	1.26mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	26d	1	1.44mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	27d	1	1.46mi
831 Lexington Ln Nevada, TX	4.0	2.5	2089	$2,095	$1.00	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $353,990 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $353,990 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $353,990 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $353,990 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $353,990 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $353,990 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,990 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,990 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $353,990 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $353,990 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $353,990 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $353,990 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $353,990 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $353,990 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $353,990 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $353,990 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $353,990 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION in Meadow Ridge Estates! The Laurel I delivers 1,895 sq ft of open-concept living with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage. Completion August 2026.This bright, airy home features an expansive living room flooded with natural light - perfect for entertaining. The well-appointed kitchen includes a charming breakfast nook for casual dining. The spacious primary suite boasts a generously-sized closet with ample storage. This thoughtfully designed floor plan maximizes space and functionality throughout. Meadow Ridge Estates offers exceptional value with NO HOA fees and NO MUD-PID taxes. Enjoy community sidewalks and top-rated schools in Community ISD. * Rendering is photo-realistically enhanced for visualization purposes, and attached photos are representative of the floorplan and may show non-standard features and options. Please see community's New Home Consultant for more details.

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $353,990 Active 984-char remark

    Show marketing remark (984 chars)

    MLS# 21232341 - Built by Davidson Homes - Aug 2026 completion! ~ NEW CONSTRUCTION in Meadow Ridge Estates! The Laurel I delivers 1,895 sq ft of open-concept living with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage. Completion August 2026.This bright, airy home features an expansive living room flooded with natural light - perfect for entertaining. The well-appointed kitchen includes a charming breakfast nook for casual dining. The spacious primary suite boasts a generously-sized closet with ample storage. This thoughtfully designed floor plan maximizes space and functionality throughout. Meadow Ridge Estates offers exceptional value with NO HOA fees and NO MUD-PID taxes. Enjoy community sidewalks and top-rated schools in Community ISD. *Rendering is photo-realistically enhanced for visualization purposes, and attached photos are representative of the floorplan and may show non-standard features and options. Please see community's New Home Consultant for more details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,829
• − Property taxes: −$5,310
• − Insurance: −$1,770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$10,298
• Taxable loss: −$16,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,000
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $353,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $353,990 NTREIS