50 E Trillium Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77381

$324,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,906 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1991 8,102 sqft lot $170/sqft · 21% below area Est $411k · 21% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Island kitchen
• Primary suite

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GAS COOKTOP
• BREAKFAST AREA
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SITTING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Powell El (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A-, #128 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 890 students, 24% FRL); Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,303 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,066
• List price: $324,000
• Delta: -21.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 E Trillium Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,906 (0%)	0mo	$324,000	$170	98
39 Sweetdream Pl E	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,877 (-2%)	2mo	$310,000	$165	89
31 Trailhead Pl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,911 (+0%)	7mo	$425,000	$222	86
34 Sweetdream Pl	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,020 (+6%)	1mo	$415,000	$205	85
43 Sweetdream Pl	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,944 (+2%)	9mo	$419,500	$216	84
26 E Trillium Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	2,020 (+6%)	12mo	$440,000	$218	75
27 Sweetdream Pl	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+5%)	13mo	$450,000	$225	73
35 Sweetdream Pl	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,013 (+6%)	11mo	$449,000	$223	72
127 W Trillium Ct	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,128 (+12%)	9mo	$469,000	$220	64
87 N Crossed Birch Pl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,926 (+1%)	4mo	$375,000	$195	60
42 Thundercove Pl	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,048 (+8%)	12mo	$525,000	$256	55
59 Cornerbrook Pl	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,184 (+15%)	13mo	$610,000	$279	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-79,285
• Equity at exit: $48,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-109,391
• Equity at exit: $28,014

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77381

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,463 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$499 /mo · $5,983/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,953

Max offer price $255,650

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-295	+0% $-387	+5% $-479	+10% $-570
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-484	+0% $-387	+5% $-290	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-224	-0.5pp $-305	base $-387	+0.5pp $-471	+1.0pp $-556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 W Sterling Pond Cir Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	2281	$2,595	$1.14	6d	1	0.88mi
4400 College Park Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,227	$2.21	0d	25	1.07mi
15 Brentwood Oaks Ct Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,225	$1.57	1d	1	1.36mi
3720 College Park Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,917	$1.95	0d	49	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $324,000 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

2. 2026-04-27
   price $342,000 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

3. 2026-04-09
   price $350,000 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

4. 2026-04-01
   status Active 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

5. 2026-03-30
   status Pending 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

6. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

7. 2026-03-17
   price $361,000 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

8. 2026-02-13
   listed $376,500 Active 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of The Woodlands featuring formal living and dining areas and a light-filled open layout. The island kitchen with gas cooktop flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room. The large primary suite offers a sitting area and an en-suite bath with an oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a shaded backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy commuter access and close to parks, pools, hike and bike trails, shopping, and top-rated schools.

9. 2025-10-12
   historical
10. 2025-07-06
    listed $419,900 Active
11. 2025-07-05
    historical
12. 2025-05-12
    listed $419,900 Active
13. 2025-05-11
    historical
14. 2025-04-27
    listed $419,900 Active
15. 2003-12-09
    soldstatus
16. 2003-12-09
    soldstatus
17. 1999-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,983 · $499/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,983 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$5,983
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,365
• − Management: −$2,365
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable loss: −$10,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,484
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,139
• Household income: $143,565
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 530.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.06%
• Current HPI: 271.7165
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $324,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $342,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $361,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $376,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-06 Listed $419,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $419,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-27 Listed $419,900 HARMLS
• 2003-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,983 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.