4156 Agate Rd · Bellingham, WA 98226

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1994 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this spacious 2009 double-wide Manufactured Home situated on a rare double lot in the woods. The home does come with significant deferred maintenance requiring repairs/updating & is priced accordingly. This is an excellent option for investors, contractors or buyers seeking an affordable property w/ upside potential. Bring your imagination & tool belt- with some work, this 1/3 acre property could shine again. Conveniently located near Barkley Village amenities, schools, services & close to community lake w/ beach & boat launch access. Alternatively, a 2 story home rebuilt on the property could potentially provide city & bay views. Proper

Key facts

• Community lake
• Double lot
• Boat launch access

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• DOUBLE LOT
• COMMUNITY LAKE
• BEACH ACCESS
• BOAT LAUNCH ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot considered value in land; Lot includes lots 42 & 43; approximately 0.34 acre
• Financial info: Financing options: Cash, Conventional, FHA, Rehab Loan, USDA, VA; see remarks
• HOA & community: Community features include boat launch

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; RV parking
• Utilities: Public water (Water District 7); Septic system (OSS); Electric and natural gas service (PSE); Tankless water heater in utility room
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Manufactured on land); Liberty model (62 x 27); Single-story with main-level entry; Has a view; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Block foundation; Manufactured house / double wide
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Outbuildings; Garden space; Brush and wooded areas; Community waterfront / private beach access; Boat launch available; Cable TV and high-speed internet available; Gas available; RV parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 three-quarter showers (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining room; French doors; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Water heater located in utility room; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-51/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.0% in Bellingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#102 in WA, #1,947 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northern Heights Elementary Schl (410 students, 31% FRL); Shuksan Middle School (579 students, 60% FRL); Squalicum High School (1,280 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 381 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $258,465 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,897
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-76,421
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98226

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,156/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,590

Max offer price $314,249

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $85	+0% $-4	+5% $-93	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-106	+0% $-4	+5% $98	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $76	base $-4	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3930 Ava Ln Unit 3941-102 Bellingham, WA	4.0	2.5	1496	$2,785	$1.86	46d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $315,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 7 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,156 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,156 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 3 d/yr ≥83°F today · 5 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,156
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,481
• − Management: −$2,481
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $1,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellingham School District
• NCES district ID: 5300420
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,678
• Composite: 48.49/100
• National rank: #4632
• State rank: #106 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bellingham

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #1947

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 130,296
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 46,782
• Household income: $79,375
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2061.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 6% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -573.37%
• Current HPI: 406.1085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.42%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,156 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.