2809 Butler Manor Dr · Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30815

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1984 9,583 sqft lot $92/sqft · 12% below area Est $165k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this spacious, 4-bedroom 2 bath home! You will enjoy a cook-friendly kitchen, dining area and living room. Outside you will find a fenced in yard perfect for entertaining. Make this house your home today!

Key facts

• Fenced in yard
• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1984

Tags

• COOK-FRIENDLY KITCHEN
• FENCED IN YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 359 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $145k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.89%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,989
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -12.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2902 Postell Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+0%)	1mo	$203,000	$129	95
3439 Gebhart Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,529 (-2%)	6mo	$135,000	$88	80
2940 Dahlia Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-9%)	2mo	$170,000	$119	71
2816 Leawood Court Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-12%)	5mo	$195,000	$142	68
3406 Pine Hill Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,623 (+3%)	1mo	$179,000	$110	67
3526 Spring Glen Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (-8%)	3mo	$175,000	$121	64
3005 Griffis Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-4%)	3mo	$125,000	$83	61
2942 Dahlia Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (-11%)	6mo	$174,000	$125	58
3007 Meadowbrook Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (+7%)	3mo	$218,000	$130	54
2804 Sturnidae Ct	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,649 (+5%)	4mo	$189,900	$115	52
2655 Cranbrook Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-12%)	3mo	$189,900	$138	48
3042 Johnny Ct	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$165,000	$123	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,150
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,738
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30815

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,539 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,953/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2813 Leawood Ct Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,250	$0.91	43d	1	0.13mi
3613 Alene Cir Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,325	$1.05	13d	1	0.37mi
3001 Alene Ct Augusta, GA	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,631	$1.27	23d	1	0.42mi
2727 Barclay St Hephzibah, GA	4.0	2.0	1430	$1,234	$0.86	43d	1	0.57mi
2704 Cranbrook Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,650	$1.20	43d	1	0.67mi
2808 Nighthawk Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,450	$1.10	43d	1	0.67mi
2914 Cumberland Dr Augusta, GA	4.0	1.5	1650	$1,400	$0.85	21d	1	0.70mi
2941 Rollingwood Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,750	$1.35	23d	1	0.79mi
2604 Edmonton Ct Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,190	$0.89	13d	1	0.86mi
2834 Brentway Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,600	$1.08	43d	1	0.88mi
3200 Deans Bridge Rd Augusta, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1075	$970	$0.90	23d	6	0.92mi
3504 Osage Ct Augusta, GA	4.0	1.5	1425	$1,556	$1.09	13d	1	0.93mi
3524 Edgeworth Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	23d	1	0.96mi
3532 Edmonton St Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,425	$1.03	23d	1	0.97mi
3532 Edmonton St Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,425	$1.03	43d	1	0.97mi
3519 Evangeline Dr Augusta, GA	4.0	1.5	1800	$1,595	$0.89	43d	1	0.97mi
2707 Gardenbrook Ct Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,606	$0.93	43d	1	1.04mi
2631 Drayton Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,430	$1.02	13d	1	1.04mi
3412 Kensington Dr N Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,350	$1.10	23d	1	1.11mi
3543 Windermere Dr Hephzibah, GA	4.0	2.0	1394	$1,550	$1.11	23d	1	1.14mi
3543 Windermere Dr Hephzibah, GA	4.0	2.0	1394	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	1.14mi
2609 Dublin Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,395	$1.00	13d	1	1.18mi
3528 Woodlake Rd Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,400	$1.10	13d	1	1.26mi
2531 Crosscreek Rd Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	23d	1	1.28mi
2531 Crosscreek Rd Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.28mi
2524 Drayton Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,700	$1.21	43d	1	1.28mi
2817 Ridgecrest Dr Hephzibah, GA	4.0	2.0	1257	$1,495	$1.19	43d	1	1.30mi
2803 Ptarmigan Rd Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,600	$1.16	23d	1	1.36mi
2803 Ptarmigan Rd Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	43d	1	1.36mi
3320 Hillis Rd Augusta, GA	4.0	3.0	1788	$1,850	$1.03	13d	1	1.43mi
3517 Byron Pl Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,350	$1.04	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $144,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Price Change 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $144,900 Price Change 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $159,900 New 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Don't miss out on this spacious, 4-bedroom 2 bath home! You will enjoy a cook-friendly kitchen, dining area and living room. Outside you will find a fenced in yard perfect for entertaining. Make this house your home today!

16. 2018-02-22
    soldstatus $50,000
17. 1984-11-01
    soldstatus $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,953
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County
• NCES district ID: 1304380
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,069
• Composite: 13.43/100
• National rank: #9524
• State rank: #154 of 174 in GA

Livability — Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA
• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 154,035
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 44,109
• Household income: $70,202
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 200,753 people
• By 2030: 200,232 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 196,813 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 190,347 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 172,496 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 146,284 · -27.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.1) · D 67.8% · R 31.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.3pp toward D · 2008: 31.8pp · 2024: 36.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.1 2020: D+37.2 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+33.8 2008: D+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.74%
• Current HPI: 162.4074
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+176.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $159,900 GAMLS
• 2018-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,953 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.