813 House Blvd · Grenelefe, FL 33844

$278,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Land · 143 Days on market

Built 2025 6,098 sqft lot $91/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the Walsh! This new four-bedroom home offers single-story living with a seamless open layout, perfect for modern lifestyles. Three secondary bedrooms share a private hallway near the front of the home, leading to an inviting open-concept floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining nook and family room. A nearby covered patio encourages simple indoor-outdoor living, while a luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A spacious three-car garage completes the home. Each home comes with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® promise, which includes new appliances as well as quartz countert

Key facts

• Single-story living
• R19 insulation
• Covered patio

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• R19 INSULATION
• LP SIDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment reported
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $91); Association amenities include pool, playground, basketball court, maintenance of grounds, recreational facilities, escrow reserves fund; Association approval required; Community features: dog park, pool, playground, street lights; no truck/RV/motorcycle parking; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18x20); Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Fiber optics; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-02-02); Faces northeast; Residential zoning (P-D)
• Construction: Frame and other construction materials; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Lennar Homes (model: WALSH)
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Paved, private lot; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: In-wall pest system; Blinds; Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#728 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,417/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $241,744 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-56,475
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-75,147
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,556

Max offer price $263,181

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $-13	+0% $-109	+5% $-206	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-205	+0% $-109	+5% $-14	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $-38	base $-109	+0.5pp $-182	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
89 Pine Forest Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	3d	1	0.89mi
2837 Pond View Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1739	$1,985	$1.14	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $278,999
3. 2026-04-03
   price $290,999
4. 2026-03-24
   price $305,999
5. 2026-03-16
   price $300,499
6. 2026-03-10
   price $295,499
7. 2026-02-24
   price $294,999
8. 2026-02-18
   price $301,740
9. 2026-02-12
   price $311,740
10. 2026-01-23
    price $310,990
11. 2026-01-12
    price $315,990
12. 2026-01-06
    price $314,990
13. 2025-12-29
    price $339,990
14. 2025-11-26
    price $349,990
15. 2025-11-21
    listed $344,990 Active
16. 2025-09-24
    soldstatus $1,105,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,321
• − Management: −$2,321
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$6,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Grenelefe

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #728
• US rank: #15600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grenelefe, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-74.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $278,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $290,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $305,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $300,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $295,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $294,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $301,740 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $311,740 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $310,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $315,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $314,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $344,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,105,100 Public Records