2353 Quarter Horse Trl #238 · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily · 166 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $165/sqft · 57% below area $329/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning 2 bed/ 1 bath condo.. Amazing upgrades to this incredible, single story, 2 bed/ 1 bath condo that is just a quick walk to shops or drive to Show Low! As you enter this light filled condo you will love the open floorplan and incredible windows with views of pine trees and mountains! Upgraded kitchen with neutral cabinetry and stainless steel refrigerator, tile floors, ceiling fans throughout, washer/ dryer on site, upgraded lighting fixtures. Beautiful bathroom w/ designer finishes and nice tile! Neutral indoor and outdoor paint. Condo sits close to Hwy 260! The indoor/ outdoor living is ideal from this sunny/ covered patio. Stroll to downtown - enjoy hiking trails and parks. Access to incredible amenities at Bison Ranch Community!

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Ceiling fans
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• TILE FLOORS
• CEILING FANS
• WASHER DRYER ON SITE
• UPGRADED LIGHTING FIXTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 258 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.56%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,600
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -57.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2336 Buffalo Loop Unit North	0.07mi	2/1.0	840 (+2%)	20mo	$300,000	$357	76
2336 Buffalo Loop N	0.07mi	2/1.0	840 (+2%)	20mo	$300,000	$357	76
2342 Buffalo Loop Unit North	0.05mi	2/1.0	840 (+2%)	22mo	$319,500	$380	76
2335 S Buffalo Loop	0.14mi	2/1.0	840 (+2%)	21mo	$319,000	$380	72
2755 Fox Trl	0.26mi	2/1.0	750 (-8%)	4mo	$298,000	$397	70
2747 Beaver Trl	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-8%)	10mo	$285,000	$380	58
2711 High Pine Loop	0.26mi	2/2.0	936 (+14%)	9mo	$336,000	$359	53
2323 S Buffalo Loop S	0.14mi	2/2.0	936 (+14%)	18mo	$374,900	$401	51
2649 Palomino Trl	0.30mi	2/2.0	936 (+14%)	10mo	$369,900	$395	50
2323 S Buffalo Loop Unit S	0.16mi	2/2.0	936 (+14%)	18mo	$374,900	$401	50
2646 Lodge Loop	0.26mi	2/2.0	936 (+14%)	14mo	$320,000	$342	48
2722 High Pine Loop	0.28mi	2/2.0	936 (+14%)	16mo	$375,000	$401	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,470
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $14,843
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$329
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,597

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $285	+0% $238	+5% $192	+10% $145
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $163	+0% $238	+5% $313	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $273	base $238	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2399 Quarter Horse Trl #241 Overgaard, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,899	$2.37	14d	1	0.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $329 · $3,948/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-03-26
   price $135,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Stunning 2 bed/ 1 bath condo.. Amazing upgrades to this incredible, single story, 2 bed/ 1 bath condo that is just a quick walk to shops or drive to Show Low! As you enter this light filled condo you will love the open floorplan and incredible windows with views of pine trees and mountains! Upgraded kitchen with neutral cabinetry and stainless steel refrigerator, tile floors, ceiling fans throughout, washer/ dryer on site, upgraded lighting fixtures. Beautiful bathroom w/ designer finishes and nice tile! Neutral indoor and outdoor paint. Condo sits close to Hwy 260! The indoor/ outdoor living is ideal from this sunny/ covered patio. Stroll to downtown - enjoy hiking trails and parks. Access to incredible amenities at Bison Ranch Community!

3. 2025-12-15
   listed $145,000 Active 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Stunning 2 bed/ 1 bath condo.. Amazing upgrades to this incredible, single story, 2 bed/ 1 bath condo that is just a quick walk to shops or drive to Show Low! As you enter this light filled condo you will love the open floorplan and incredible windows with views of pine trees and mountains! Upgraded kitchen with neutral cabinetry and stainless steel refrigerator, tile floors, ceiling fans throughout, washer/ dryer on site, upgraded lighting fixtures. Beautiful bathroom w/ designer finishes and nice tile! Neutral indoor and outdoor paint. Condo sits close to Hwy 260! The indoor/ outdoor living is ideal from this sunny/ covered patio. Stroll to downtown - enjoy hiking trails and parks. Access to incredible amenities at Bison Ranch Community!

4. 2024-07-20
   historical
5. 2024-07-15
   historical $1,200
6. 2024-04-06
   listed $1,200
7. 2024-03-22
   listed $165,000 Active
8. 2023-09-19
   historical
9. 2023-08-15
   price $155,000
10. 2023-06-02
    status Active
11. 2023-05-24
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
12. 2023-04-27
    status Active
13. 2023-04-15
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
14. 2023-04-10
    listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − HOA: −$3,948
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$241
• After-tax cash flow: $2,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story condo is in good condition with neutral finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of upgrades and potential for further value enhancement through exterior painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Rental Removed $1,200 ARMLS
• 2024-04-06 Listed for Rent $1,200 ARMLS
• 2024-03-22 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Price Changed $155,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-05-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-04-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-04-15 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-04-10 Listed $159,000 ARMLS