711 Old Canyon Rd #6 · Fremont, CA 94536

$194,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $186k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 Bedroom/2 Bath home features a light-filled floor plan with a large, open living room and dining room with built-in hutch. Enjoy extra space off the family room with bonus room New Plank flooring and fresh paint throughout. Brand-new stainless-steel appliances including dishwasher stovetop refrigerator and wall oven Enjoy the beautiful, panoramic view of the rolling hills of Niles Canyon. Carport will easily accommodate 2 cars. Storage shed and beautifully maintained front and backyards. Located in the highly desirable Niles Canyon Mobile Home Estates…a lovely senior 55+ park that offers a year-round heated community pool, clubhouse, sauna & spa, plus many community activities. Fabulously located just minutes to downtown Niles!

Key facts

• Newer appliances
• Abundant cabinetry
• Built-in hutch

Tags

• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• SOLID-SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Clubhouse; Community pool; Pets allowed with number/size limits and upon approval; Park name: NILES CANYON MHP

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (mobile home); Double-wide model (Villa West)
• Construction: Metal siding; Built as a double-wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Back yard; Deck; Rear porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Built-in oven; Refrigerator; Disposal; Breakfast nook; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower and double vanity; Shower over tub in other bathroom(s)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Solid surface counters; Dining area; Family room; Florida / screen room; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Laundry cabinets; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $194k).
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vallejo Mill Elementary (403 students, 25% FRL); Centerville Junior High (946 students, 30% FRL); Washington High (math 61% / reading 74%, grade B, #137 of 1,170 statewide, top 12%, 1,931 students, 27% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 80% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fremont Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.37%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 Old Canyon Rd #103	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+3%)	2mo	$300,000	$229	89
711 Old Canyon Rd #33	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	3mo	$193,000	$144	88
711 Old Canyon Rd #47	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	6mo	$195,000	$145	85
711 Old Canyon Rd #147	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	12mo	$99,000	$79	84
711 Old Canyon Rd #81	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+8%)	1mo	$120,000	$88	83
711 Old Canyon Rd #97	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,340 (+5%)	9mo	$138,500	$103	80
711 Old Canyon Rd #74	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	15mo	$300,000	$223	78
711 Old Canyon Rd #176	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	2mo	$272,000	$243	78
711 Old Canyon Rd #8	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-2%)	21mo	$220,000	$176	74
711 Old Canyon Rd #169	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	8mo	$210,000	$146	72
711 Old Canyon Rd #43	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+8%)	16mo	$275,000	$199	67
711 Old Canyon Rd #26	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	14mo	$199,000	$138	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $59,058
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $176,447
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94536

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,910/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $1,375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,509	-5% $1,442	+0% $1,375	+5% $1,308	+10% $1,241
Rent	-10% $1,103	-5% $1,239	+0% $1,375	+5% $1,510	+10% $1,646
Rate	-1.0pp $1,472	-0.5pp $1,424	base $1,375	+0.5pp $1,324	+1.0pp $1,273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38352 Timpanogas Cir Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,350	$2.68	12d	1	0.19mi
38451 Goodrich Way Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$3,600	$3.08	45d	1	0.26mi
37847 Niles Blvd Apt 10 Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	45d	1	0.48mi
38776 Crane Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1534	$3,750	$2.44	4d	1	0.63mi
38738 Aurora Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1123	$3,296	$2.93	12d	1	0.65mi
37565 2nd St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1704	$4,095	$2.40	19d	1	0.75mi
37565 2nd St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1704	$4,095	$2.40	7d	1	0.75mi
38593 Royal Ann Cmn Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$3,609	$3.06	26d	1	0.75mi
38605 Royal Ann Cmn Unit 38605 Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$3,250	$2.75	45d	1	0.77mi
562 Lambert Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$3,940	$2.56	14d	1	0.91mi
38862 Cherry Glen Cmn Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1168	$3,400	$2.91	21d	1	1.08mi
38862 Cherry Glen Cmn Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1168	$3,400	$2.91	20d	1	1.08mi
1043 Bonner Ave Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1532	$4,500	$2.94	45d	1	1.13mi
1031 Walnut Ave Fremont, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$4,592	$4.24	0d	41	1.22mi
1440 Mowry Ave Fremont, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$3,222	$3.26	0d	3	1.25mi
38680 Waterside Cir Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	990	$3,281	$3.31	0d	6	1.30mi
1001 Beethoven Cmn Fremont, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1059	$3,150	$2.97	0d	11	1.36mi
282 Lindero Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1440	$3,950	$2.74	4d	1	1.36mi
39451 Gallaudet Dr Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$3,479	$3.84	0d	14	1.45mi
2000 Walnut Ave Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$4,071	$4.42	0d	13	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $194,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,910
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,300
• − Management: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable income: $14,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,421
• After-tax cash flow: $13,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,619
• Household income: $167,662
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2414.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 51% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Other Indo-European 17% Chinese 11% Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1370.22%
• Current HPI: 388.7956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+144.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $194,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-08-30 Sold (MLS) $184,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-07-24 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-07-16 Listed $174,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-03-25 Sold (MLS) $84,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-03-20 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-01-27 Listed $79,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR