8845 Valley River Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76244

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2008 4,400 sqft lot $179/sqft · 12% below area Est $284k · 12% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the sought-after Valley Brook community of North Fort Worth. This well-maintained home offers an open-concept layout with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a functional floor plan perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, Keller ISD schools, and major highways including I-35W for an easy commute. Enjoy neighborhood amenities including a community pool, parks, and walking areas, all while being just minutes from Alliance Town Center and Presidio Junction. A great opportunity to own in a rapidly growing area of Fort Worth!

Key facts

• Keller isd schools
• Near dining
• Community pool

Tags

• VALLEY BROOK COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• KELLER ISD SCHOOLS
• WALKING AREAS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property treated as clear for loan purposes
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $100 quarterly; HOA provides full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 2008; One story
• Construction: Year built: 2008
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Sidewalks; Subdivision: Valley Brook

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Nine total rooms; One living area; One dining area; One level (single-story)
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Keller ISD (urban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Friendship El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 533 students, 58% FRL); Hillwood Middle (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,228 students, 40% FRL); Central H S (math 41% / reading 68%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,551 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 19% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 353 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,287 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,509
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -11.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8828 Valley River Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+3%)	2mo	$269,000	$187	92
8844 Quarry Ridge Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,398 (0%)	12mo	$264,900	$189	86
6029 Mountain Robin Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-3%)	8mo	$275,000	$204	73
8921 Sun Haven Way	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (+10%)	1mo	$262,000	$170	71
214 Stallion Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+4%)	4mo	$290,000	$200	70
8919 Valley River Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,559 (+12%)	3mo	$295,000	$189	69
247 Stallion Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	3mo	$309,000	$218	67
8833 Quarry Ridge Trl	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,547 (+11%)	11mo	$295,000	$191	66
9013 Sun Haven Way	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+12%)	4mo	$295,000	$188	63
2066 Paint Pony Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-12%)	6mo	$275,000	$225	47
229 Rodeo Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-12%)	11mo	$289,900	$237	45
2088 Paint Pony Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-15%)	8mo	$300,000	$252	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-57,334
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-84,773
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76244

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,222/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $217,287

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44	-5% $-114	+0% $-185	+5% $-256	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-363	-5% $-274	+0% $-185	+5% $-96	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-122	base $-185	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5757 Mountain Stream Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,300	$1.30	45d	1	0.16mi
5537 Costa Mesa Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,250	$1.22	45d	1	0.49mi
5536 Camarillo Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,195	$1.19	3d	1	0.51mi
219 Cutting Horse Ln Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,325	$1.53	5d	1	0.52mi
209 Colt Ln Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$5,000	$3.08	45d	1	0.53mi
5809 Swords Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,095	$1.54	45d	1	0.57mi
5801 Swords Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,095	$1.54	45d	1	0.58mi
5301 N Tarrant Pkwy Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$2,094	$1.93	0d	23	0.60mi
5744 Swords Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,995	$1.49	45d	1	0.61mi
5832 Swords Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,895	$1.46	45d	1	0.61mi
247 Stallion Dr Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,100	$1.48	24d	1	0.61mi
247 Stallion Dr Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,100	$1.48	15d	1	0.61mi
249 Stallion Dr Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,100	$1.38	4d	1	0.62mi
5813 Blackmon Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,200	$1.28	19d	1	0.63mi
5721 Blackmon Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1503	$2,095	$1.39	45d	1	0.63mi
8928 Manana St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,599	$1.47	9d	1	0.74mi
2080 Palomino Trl Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,105	$1.58	45d	1	0.74mi
8625 Ray White Rd Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,508	$1.57	14d	1	0.78mi
8625 Ray White Rd Unit 8658 Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$2,047	$1.60	0d	1	0.78mi
8625 Ray White Rd Unit 8682 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,406	$1.47	0d	1	0.78mi
6000 Bursey Rd Unit 1521925P Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$4,833	$2.99	1d	1	0.78mi
5009 Holliday Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1799	$2,599	$1.44	45d	1	0.88mi
6116 Bursey Rd Watauga, TX	3.0	3.0	1613	$2,750	$1.70	45d	1	0.90mi
6132 Bursey Rd Watauga, TX	3.0	2.5	1609	$2,650	$1.65	20d	1	0.91mi
9512 Chiefton Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,850	$1.30	26d	1	0.91mi
5324 Mirage Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	0.96mi
5112 Keating St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,700	$1.50	45d	1	1.01mi
5020 Nash Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,550	$1.37	6d	1	1.01mi
4937 Spur Ridge Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,395	$1.57	45d	1	1.03mi
8221 Mark Ln Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,900	$2.06	26d	1	1.09mi
6400 High Lawn Ter Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,155	$1.51	45d	1	1.10mi
4917 Stirrup Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,006	$1.26	24d	1	1.10mi
500 North Tarrant Pkwy Keller, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,037	$1.91	0d	10	1.11mi
8541 Western Meadows Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,275	$1.25	45d	1	1.12mi
2107 Ridgecliff Dr Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,550	$1.95	7d	1	1.12mi
4820 Western Meadows Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$1,995	$1.08	45d	1	1.13mi
2136 Stoneridge Dr Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,995	$1.13	24d	1	1.13mi
8832 Stirrup Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,300	$1.27	26d	1	1.14mi
4857 Eagle Trace Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,995	$1.36	45d	1	1.15mi
6329 North Park Dr Watauga, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,195	$1.35	45d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $250,000 633-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $240,000 Active 633-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,222 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,222 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,222
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $-683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825260
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $92,106
• Composite: 48.46/100
• National rank: #2131
• State rank: #91 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,728
• Household income: $122,217
• Rent vs Own: 32.0% rent · 68.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.25%
• Current HPI: 249.0762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $240,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,222 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.