30 Ward St · Waterbury, CT 06704

$170,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 1970 0.39 ac lot Est $264k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.5/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICED TO SELL. TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL FOR OWNER OCCUPIED OR RENTAL INVESTMENT. NEEDS UPDATING. WITH A LITTLE TLC WORTH THE INVESTMENT. LARGE LOT. NO FHA. CASH OR HARD MONEY PREFERRED. LOTS OF PRIVACY ON REAR LOT. PRICED TO SELL. TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL FOR OWNER OCCUPIED OR RENTAL INVESTMENT. NEEDS UPDATING. WITH A LITTLE TLC WORTH THE INVESTMENT. LARGE LOT. NO FHA. CASH OR HARD MONEY PREFERRED. LOTS OF PRIVACY ON REAR LOT.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.6% in Waterbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#32 in CT, #2,205 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, employment D.
• Waterbury School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #148 of 153 in CT (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.08%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,655
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Cossett St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,244 (+2%)	4mo	$270,000	$217	78
252 Wood St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+5%)	4mo	$140,000	$109	74
38 Bronson St	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,194 (-2%)	7mo	$275,000	$230	67
7 Crown St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,340 (+10%)	8mo	$255,000	$190	62
81 Easton Ave	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,328 (+9%)	3mo	$250,000	$188	60
82 Hotchkiss St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,255 (+3%)	6mo	$320,000	$255	58
35 Butler St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,089 (-10%)	5mo	$235,000	$216	52
212 Platt St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,350 (+11%)	1mo	$320,000	$237	50
59 Howard St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+12%)	5mo	$250,000	$184	48
37 Clifton Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,130 (-7%)	0mo	$257,000	$227	47
39 Shelley St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-15%)	6mo	$226,750	$220	46
341 Oak St	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,307 (+8%)	4mo	$240,000	$184	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,488
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $53,747
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06704

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
46 Ward St Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	23d	1	0.05mi
132 Locust St Unit 16 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	23d	1	0.10mi
41 Putnam St Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	43d	1	0.12mi
64 Dikeman St Unit 2nd Floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	21d	1	0.17mi
152 E Farm St #1 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1182	$1,550	$1.31	43d	1	0.18mi
5 Hill St Unit B,D Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	14d	1	0.20mi
105 Division St Unit 3rd Floor Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	14d	1	0.23mi
48 Irion St Apt 3 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,399	$1.40	43d	1	0.24mi
46 Webb St Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.28mi
52 Oak St Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,800	$1.76	3d	1	0.31mi
30 Walnut Ave Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	43d	1	0.33mi
76 Oak St Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,249	$1.39	43d	1	0.33mi
27 Beacon St Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	43d	1	0.35mi
25 Laurel St #1 Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	43d	1	0.36mi
77 Wall St Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	11d	1	0.38mi
1105 N Main St Unit 1 Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1316	$2,200	$1.67	21d	1	0.41mi
1105 N Main St Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1316	$2,200	$1.67	43d	1	0.41mi
53 Cooke St Unit 3rd floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	43d	1	0.46mi
214 Oak St Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,700	$1.39	11d	1	0.48mi
127 Pearl St Unit 1 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1212	$2,000	$1.65	43d	1	0.51mi
200 Hill St Unit 1R Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	43d	1	0.51mi
33 Pilgrim Ave Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	744	$1,300	$1.75	23d	1	0.52mi
203 Cooke St Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1472	$2,000	$1.36	43d	1	0.53mi
779 E Main St Unit 2nd floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,400	$1.22	23d	1	0.56mi
233 Cooke St Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	23d	1	0.58mi
10 2nd Ave Unit 1st Floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	23d	1	0.63mi
114 Buckingham St Unit 3rd Floor Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1418	$1,750	$1.23	43d	1	0.69mi
114 Buckingham St Unit 1st floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1418	$1,750	$1.23	43d	1	0.69mi
63 Bank St Unit 3A Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	903	$1,700	$1.88	14d	1	0.69mi
96 Hillside Ave Waterbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,795	$1.20	43d	1	0.71mi
417 N Walnut St Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	14d	1	0.72mi
125 Hillside Ave Unit B1 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	960	$1,300	$1.35	3d	1	0.77mi
259 Grove St Unit 1 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	43d	1	0.80mi
184 Buckingham St Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	23d	1	0.82mi
18 Cliff St Unit 1 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	43d	1	0.82mi
89 Willow St Unit 1 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	0.90mi
29 Bouley Ave Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1267	$3,000	$2.37	43d	1	0.92mi
180 Willow St Unit 2nd Floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	43d	1	0.92mi
219 Woodlawn Ter Unit 3rd floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1076	$1,500	$1.39	43d	1	0.95mi
236 Hillside Ave Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	14d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-12
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-09-19
   listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$74
• After-tax cash flow: $2,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterbury School District
• NCES district ID: 0904830
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,040
• Composite: 14.85/100
• National rank: #9380
• State rank: #148 of 153 in CT

Livability — Waterbury

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2205

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterbury, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 115,012
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $48,718
• Rent vs Own: 54.7% rent · 45.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1981.0

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Black 28% Two or more races 20% White 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 30% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.05%
• Current HPI: 340.0917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.02%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $170,000 Smart MLS