281 Ellison St · Rochester, NY 14609

$149,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1941 4,640 sqft lot Est $197k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a really nice home. Newly updated Kitchen with granite top and tiled backsplash. Very spacious with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on first floor. Refinished hardwood floors throughout. Basement, which includes a full kitchen and bathroom, is in the process of being refinished. There was a kitchen and a full bathroom existing. Finished basement area is about 680 sq. ft. . Owner will hold first mortgage with substantial down payment. Great opportunity!

Key facts

• New boiler
• Tiled backsplash
• Large finished space

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• TILED BACKSPLASH
• LARGE FINISHED SPACE
• SECOND GRANITE KITCHEN AREA
• NEW BOILER
• NEW THERMOPANE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $150k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.20%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 Ellison St	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,350 (0%)	0mo	$184,000	$136	100
265 Springfield Ave	0.29mi	4/1.5	1,268 (-6%)	0mo	$200,000	$158	70
204 Salisbury St	0.32mi	4/1.5	1,449 (+7%)	1mo	$187,460	$129	66
1542 N Goodman St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,340 (-1%)	0mo	$205,000	$153	64
227 Newcomb St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (+2%)	1mo	$225,000	$164	62
865 N Goodman St	0.45mi	4/1.5	1,245 (-8%)	2mo	$76,000	$61	59
298 Fieldwood Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	2mo	$193,000	$146	59
30 Newcomb St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (+11%)	1mo	$70,000	$47	56
201 Arbutus St	0.46mi	4/1.5	1,180 (-13%)	0mo	$210,000	$178	51
23 Martinot Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,292 (-4%)	1mo	$255,000	$197	51
363 Melville St	0.59mi	4/1.0	1,500 (+11%)	1mo	$175,000	$117	45
381 Parsells Ave	0.64mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (+13%)	1mo	$110,000	$72	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $16,957
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $99,176
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14609

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Rents YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,536/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,236

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $539	+0% $497	+5% $454	+10% $412
Rent	-10% $349	-5% $423	+0% $497	+5% $570	+10% $644
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $535	base $497	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1890 Clifford Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	24d	1	0.17mi
52 Frances St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1256	$1,595	$1.27	44d	1	0.36mi
47 Priscilla St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1250	$1,900	$1.52	22d	1	0.41mi
326 Northland Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,500	$1.28	3d	1	0.55mi
126 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	44d	1	0.58mi
126 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	22d	1	0.58mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	4d	1	0.59mi
420 Rosewood Ter Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1246	$1,300	$1.04	4d	1	0.62mi
147 5th St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1289	$1,950	$1.51	22d	1	0.63mi
1159 Culver Rd Unit A2 UP Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1313	$1,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.73mi
207 Lux St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1728	$2,150	$1.24	11d	1	0.79mi
25 Trust St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1003	$1,600	$1.60	4d	1	0.86mi
59 Clark Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1728	$1,800	$1.04	3d	1	1.04mi
171 Mohawk St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,775	$1.68	44d	1	1.07mi
1079 Garson Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1273	$2,100	$1.65	11d	1	1.09mi
108 Bowman St Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.14mi
176 Roycroft Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1169	$950	$0.81	11d	1	1.20mi
117 Northaven Ter Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1460	$1,975	$1.35	11d	1	1.34mi
2450 Culver Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,400	$1.74	4d	1	1.36mi
733 University Ave #3 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	1.40mi
149 Brookdale Park Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1543	$2,950	$1.91	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $149,900 Active
3. 2018-12-20
   soldstatus $79,000 Closed Sale or Rented 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   This is a really nice home. Newly updated Kitchen with granite top and tiled backsplash. Very spacious with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on first floor. Refinished hardwood floors throughout. Basement, which includes a full kitchen and bathroom, is in the process of being refinished. There was a kitchen and a full bathroom existing. Finished basement area is about 680 sq. ft. . Owner will hold first mortgage with substantial down payment. Great opportunity!

4. 2018-10-11
   status Pending Sale 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   This is a really nice home. Newly updated Kitchen with granite top and tiled backsplash. Very spacious with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on first floor. Refinished hardwood floors throughout. Basement, which includes a full kitchen and bathroom, is in the process of being refinished. There was a kitchen and a full bathroom existing. Finished basement area is about 680 sq. ft. . Owner will hold first mortgage with substantial down payment. Great opportunity!

5. 2018-09-16
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   This is a really nice home. Newly updated Kitchen with granite top and tiled backsplash. Very spacious with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on first floor. Refinished hardwood floors throughout. Basement, which includes a full kitchen and bathroom, is in the process of being refinished. There was a kitchen and a full bathroom existing. Finished basement area is about 680 sq. ft. . Owner will hold first mortgage with substantial down payment. Great opportunity!

6. 2018-09-04
   price $89,500 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   This is a really nice home. Newly updated Kitchen with granite top and tiled backsplash. Very spacious with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on first floor. Refinished hardwood floors throughout. Basement, which includes a full kitchen and bathroom, is in the process of being refinished. There was a kitchen and a full bathroom existing. Finished basement area is about 680 sq. ft. . Owner will hold first mortgage with substantial down payment. Great opportunity!

7. 2018-09-03
   listed $895,000 Active 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   This is a really nice home. Newly updated Kitchen with granite top and tiled backsplash. Very spacious with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on first floor. Refinished hardwood floors throughout. Basement, which includes a full kitchen and bathroom, is in the process of being refinished. There was a kitchen and a full bathroom existing. Finished basement area is about 680 sq. ft. . Owner will hold first mortgage with substantial down payment. Great opportunity!

8. 2017-06-16
   soldstatus $50,002 Closed Sale or Rented 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Convenient Location! 3 Bedroom, 3 Bath Ranch! Bright Living Room has a double-sided wood burning fireplace!! On busline! Great investment property!!

9. 2017-05-22
   status Pending Sale 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Convenient Location! 3 Bedroom, 3 Bath Ranch! Bright Living Room has a double-sided wood burning fireplace!! On busline! Great investment property!!

10. 2017-05-12
    listed $49,900 Active 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Convenient Location! 3 Bedroom, 3 Bath Ranch! Bright Living Room has a double-sided wood burning fireplace!! On busline! Great investment property!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,035 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$498/yr (+$42/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,536
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,754
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$901
• After-tax cash flow: $5,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,274
• Household income: $64,603
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2183.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.57%
• Current HPI: 328.7053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.89%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+200.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-12-20 Sold (MLS) $79,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-11 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2018-09-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2018-09-04 Price Changed $89,500 UNYREIS
• 2018-09-03 Listed $895,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-06-16 Sold (MLS) $50,002 UNYREIS
• 2017-05-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2017-05-12 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,536 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.