3950 N Calumet Ter · Hernando, FL 34442

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2005 1.33 ac lot Est $275k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country Living with Space for Everything! Enjoy the freedom and flexibility of this 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 1.33-acre property with plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. Whether you need space for hobbies, storage, or outdoor living, this property offers it all. Step inside to find a comfortable layout with generous living space, everyday living or relaxing with family and friends. The home also features a bright Florida room, enjoy your morning coffee or unwinding while taking in the peaceful surroundings. Outside, the possibilities continue with two workshops, giving you plenty of space for projects, tools, or extra storage. A detached c

Key facts

• Generac generator
• Detached carport
• Ample room for rvs

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• TWO WORKSHOPS
• DETACHED CARPORT
• GENERAC GENERATOR
• 300 LB PROPANE TANK
• AMPLE ROOM FOR RVS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; Detached carport; Driveway; Gravel parking area; Carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewage
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Varied topography; Rectangular, wooded lot; County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds and window treatments; Furnished; Smoke detector(s); Generator; Shed(s), storage and workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $225k implies a 923% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,248 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.56%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,752
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3950 N Calumet Ter	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$154	95
3565 N Page Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (0%)	14mo	$275,000	$212	63
1441 E Evelyn St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-8%)	23mo	$333,000	$278	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-21,319
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $611
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,669

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $303	+0% $240	+5% $176	+10% $112
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $162	+0% $240	+5% $317	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $297	base $240	+0.5pp $181	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3723 N Chandler Dr Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,400	$1.39	21d	1	0.89mi
5135 N Western Dr Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,825	$1.21	21d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 1995-04-10
   soldstatus $22,000
4. 1992-04-01
   soldstatus $22,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,327/yr (+$111/mo · 245.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$224
• After-tax cash flow: $3,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+886.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — RACC
• 2026-03-15 Listed $225,000 RACC
• 1995-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $541 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.