154 Stone Crab Cir · Savannah, GA 31302

$255,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,682 sqft · Townhouse · 156 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 1,307 sqft lot $152/sqft · 9% below area Est $279k · 9% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In-Ready Middle Unit! The Amberjack Floor Plan by Beacon New Homes Features 3 Bedrooms with 2.5 Bathrooms located in the Palms at New Hampstead just minutes away from Savannah and Pooler! The Kitchen Showcases Stainless-Steel Appliances, an Island with Granite Countertops! Tray Ceiling in Master Bedroom and Quartz Countertops in all Bathrooms! Can Close in 30 Days or Less! Book Your Showing Today!

Key facts

• $125 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• TRAY CEILING IN MASTER BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $255k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Savannah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#1 in GA, #397 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: employment D, schools F.
• Savannah-Chatham County (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #134 of 174 in GA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,694 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (973 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chatham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $224,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,226
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -8.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Stone Crab Cir	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,682 (0%)	8mo	$285,000	$169	94
160 Stone Crab Cir	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,682 (0%)	3mo	$279,838	$166	89
156 Stone Crab Cir	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,682 (0%)	7mo	$285,000	$169	87
162 Stone Crab Cir	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,682 (0%)	8mo	$285,000	$169	83
109 Islamorada Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,509 (-10%)	0mo	$255,000	$169	69
101 Islamorada Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,509 (-10%)	1mo	$255,500	$169	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-31,888
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-33,810
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31302

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,392 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,064

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
218 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.46mi
228 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.46mi
232 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.47mi
238 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.47mi
214 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.48mi
244 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.48mi
212 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.49mi
248 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.49mi
227 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.50mi
231 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.51mi
209 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.51mi
206 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.52mi
200 Justify Ave Savannah, GA	4.0	2.5	2005	$2,295	$1.14	43d	1	0.54mi
154 Guana Ln Bloomingdale, GA	4.0	3.5	1920	$2,700	$1.41	43d	1	0.62mi
455 Coconut Dr Bloomingdale, GA	4.0	2.5	2174	$2,350	$1.08	43d	1	0.89mi
480 John Carter Rd Bloomingdale, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,331	$2.33	13d	20	1.04mi
404 Turpentine Trl Bloomingdale, GA	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,350	$1.32	13d	1	1.08mi
214 Coneflower Rd Bloomingdale, GA	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,300	$1.62	43d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 417-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $255,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-02-27
    price $260,000 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Move-In-Ready Middle Unit! The Amberjack Floor Plan by Beacon New Homes Features 3 Bedrooms with 2.5 Bathrooms located in the Palms at New Hampstead just minutes away from Savannah and Pooler! The Kitchen Showcases Stainless-Steel Appliances, an Island with Granite Countertops! Tray Ceiling in Master Bedroom and Quartz Countertops in all Bathrooms! Can Close in 30 Days or Less! Book Your Showing Today!

19. 2026-01-13
    listed $270,000 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Move-In-Ready Middle Unit! The Amberjack Floor Plan by Beacon New Homes Features 3 Bedrooms with 2.5 Bathrooms located in the Palms at New Hampstead just minutes away from Savannah and Pooler! The Kitchen Showcases Stainless-Steel Appliances, an Island with Granite Countertops! Tray Ceiling in Master Bedroom and Quartz Countertops in all Bathrooms! Can Close in 30 Days or Less! Book Your Showing Today!

20. 2026-01-05
    soldstatus $342,000 Closed 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Move-In-Ready Middle Unit! The Amberjack Floor Plan by Beacon New Homes Features 3 Bedrooms with 2.5 Bathrooms located in the Palms at New Hampstead just minutes away from Savannah and Pooler! The Kitchen Showcases Stainless-Steel Appliances, an Island with Granite Countertops! Tray Ceiling in Master Bedroom and Quartz Countertops in all Bathrooms! Can Close in 30 Days or Less! Book Your Showing Today!

21. 2025-07-31
    historical 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Move-In-Ready Middle Unit! The Amberjack Floor Plan by Beacon New Homes Features 3 Bedrooms with 2.5 Bathrooms located in the Palms at New Hampstead just minutes away from Savannah and Pooler! The Kitchen Showcases Stainless-Steel Appliances, an Island with Granite Countertops! Tray Ceiling in Master Bedroom and Quartz Countertops in all Bathrooms! Can Close in 30 Days or Less! Book Your Showing Today!

22. 2025-06-19
    listed $280,000 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Move-In-Ready Middle Unit! The Amberjack Floor Plan by Beacon New Homes Features 3 Bedrooms with 2.5 Bathrooms located in the Palms at New Hampstead just minutes away from Savannah and Pooler! The Kitchen Showcases Stainless-Steel Appliances, an Island with Granite Countertops! Tray Ceiling in Master Bedroom and Quartz Countertops in all Bathrooms! Can Close in 30 Days or Less! Book Your Showing Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,346 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,597/yr (+$133/mo · 213.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$1,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$267
• After-tax cash flow: $3,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a great location. Minor updates could further enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Re-carpeting the bedrooms — Improves comfort and reduces allergens
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Re-carpeting the bedrooms — Improves comfort and reduces allergens ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Savannah-Chatham County
• NCES district ID: 1301020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,443
• Composite: 20.14/100
• National rank: #8639
• State rank: #134 of 174 in GA

Livability — Savannah

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #397

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Savannah, GA
• County: Effingham County · 68,439 people
• City population: 216,564
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 8,899
• Household income: $68,998
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 188.0

Population outlook (Chatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 332,584 people
• By 2030: 355,508 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 400,030 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 443,019 · +33.2%
• By 2075: 534,579 · +60.7%
• By 2100: 583,863 · +75.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chatham

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 58.6% · R 40.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+18.8 2016: D+14.5 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.89%
• Current HPI: 293.9427
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $260,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $270,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-05 Sold (MLS) $342,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $280,000 Hive MLS