13968 W Holly Loop · Big Lake, AK 99623

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2000 1.00 ac lot Est $384k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Here's your chance to break into the real estate investing market! 2 bed, 1 bath units in a quiet neighborhood on a nice wooded lot, over an acre. New roof in 2025. Great rental history. Close to Big Lake Airport, Three Bears, Big Lake North State Rec Site, and Big Lake Elementary School.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Close to three bears
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• WOODED LOT
• NEW ROOF
• CLOSE TO BIG LAKE AIRPORT
• CLOSE TO THREE BEARS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 4 open parking spaces; No attached garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Multi-Family property; Built in 2000
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 1.0-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Multi-family property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $320k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,387/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $320,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.44%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14763 W Apryl Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,908 (+8%)	2mo	$415,000	$218	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-20,942
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $24,295
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,167/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,768

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $673	-5% $581	+0% $489	+5% $397	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $355	+0% $489	+5% $623	+10% $756
Rate	-1.0pp $652	-0.5pp $571	base $489	+0.5pp $405	+1.0pp $319

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,388
Total (2 units)			$3,387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13845 W Kluane Dr Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,495	$1.94	44d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $325,000 Active
17. 2025-03-14
    listed $325,000 Active
18. 2017-04-02
    listed $194,000
19. 2005-08-18
    soldstatus
20. 2005-05-02
    listed $155,000
21. 2001-02-09
    soldstatus
22. 2000-11-10
    listed $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,167 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,167 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,167
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,252
• − Management: −$3,252
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$165
• After-tax cash flow: $5,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 4,066
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+606.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $325,000 AKMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $325,000 AKMLS
• 2017-04-02 Listed $194,000 AKMLS
• 2005-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-02 Listed $155,000 AKMLS
• 2001-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-11-10 Listed $46,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,167 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.