36 Connelly Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$119,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1920 4,480 sqft lot $88/sqft · 25% below area Est $161k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for investors looking for a value-add property in Buffalo's 14215 zip code. This 4-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home offers approximately 1,364 square feet of living space and solid potential with the right cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout, generous room sizes, and classic Buffalo architecture. While the property requires cosmetic renovations including interior paint, flooring updates, and kitchen/bathroom refresh it provides an excellent chance to build equity and increase rental value. Located on a residential street with convenient access to public transportation, schools, shopping, and major routes. Strong rental demand in the area supports long-term investment potential. Property Overview Bedrooms: 4 Bathrooms: 1 Approx. Square Footage: 1,364 sq ft Year Built: 1920 Lot Type: Residential Basement: Yes Heating: Forced Air Style: Traditional Buffalo Two-Story Property is being sold as-is. Pricing reflects condition. Buyer responsible for due diligence and inspections.

Key facts

• Cosmetic renovations
• Interior paint
• Residential street

Tags

• COSMETIC RENOVATIONS
• INTERIOR PAINT
• FLOORING UPDATES
• KITCHEN BATHROOM REFRESH
• RESIDENTIAL STREET
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $120k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.57%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,900
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -25.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
635 Norfolk Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,340 (-2%)	5mo	$172,500	$129	78
37 Elmer Ave	0.49mi	4/1.0	1,327 (-3%)	0mo	$170,000	$128	72
597 Norfolk Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,490 (+9%)	4mo	$160,000	$107	70
59 Martha Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,282 (-6%)	1mo	$149,000	$116	65
157 Roosevelt Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,394 (+2%)	4mo	$200,000	$143	64
212 Easton Ave	0.59mi	4/1.0	1,248 (-8%)	3mo	$220,000	$176	56
323 Grider St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,418 (+4%)	1mo	$128,000	$90	54
213 Phyllis Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,341 (-2%)	4mo	$217,500	$162	53
14 Thornton Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,445 (+6%)	4mo	$239,900	$166	51
84 Elmer Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,510 (+11%)	1mo	$125,000	$83	49
127 Durham Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,550 (+14%)	1mo	$216,000	$139	43
73 Davidson Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (+13%)	5mo	$175,000	$113	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $10,052
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $37,238
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	43d	1	0.26mi
97 Davidson Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	1d	1	0.61mi
140 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	43d	1	0.65mi
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	10d	1	0.93mi
85 Blake St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1022	$1,000	$0.98	43d	1	1.01mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	14d	1	1.13mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.19mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,997	$2.93	1d	10	1.20mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.24mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.24mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	1d	1	1.28mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	19d	1	1.38mi
67 Moeller St Unit LOWER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	23d	1	1.39mi
67 Moeller St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	3d	1	1.39mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	14d	1	1.41mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	14d	1	1.42mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	14d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    historical
16. 2025-12-18
    listed $119,900 Active
17. 2025-12-16
    listed $119,900 Active 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Great opportunity for investors looking for a value-add property in Buffalo's 14215 zip code. This 4-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home offers approximately 1,364 square feet of living space and solid potential with the right cosmetic updates. The home features a functional layout, generous room sizes, and classic Buffalo architecture. While the property requires cosmetic renovations including interior paint, flooring updates, and kitchen/bathroom refresh it provides an excellent chance to build equity and increase rental value. Located on a residential street with convenient access to public transportation, schools, shopping, and major routes. Strong rental demand in the area supports long-term investment potential. Property Overview Bedrooms: 4 Bathrooms: 1 Approx. Square Footage: 1,364 sq ft Year Built: 1920 Lot Type: Residential Basement: Yes Heating: Forced Air Style: Traditional Buffalo Two-Story Property is being sold as-is. Pricing reflects condition. Buyer responsible for due diligence and inspections.

18. 2022-01-19
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 2022-01-10
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed Sale or Rented
20. 2021-10-23
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
21. 2021-10-12
    listed $69,900 Active
22. 2021-02-19
    soldstatus $58,000
23. 2019-09-30
    historical
24. 2019-05-03
    status Active
25. 2019-01-22
    status Pending Sale
26. 2018-12-21
    listed $59,900 Active
27. 2012-06-28
    soldstatus $40,250
28. 2009-05-29
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,167 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$859/yr (+$72/mo · 278.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $4,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $5,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+531.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $119,900 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2022-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-10 Sold (MLS) $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-10-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-12 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2019-05-03 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2019-01-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-12-21 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2012-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,250 Public Records
• 2009-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $308 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.