2523 Oyster Creek Bnd · Oyster Creek, TX 77541

$109,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1999 7,405 sqft lot $90/sqft · 6% below area Est $117k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Need a getaway that’s close to the beach but far from chaos? This 3-bed, 2-bath mobile home is tucked in a quiet neighborhood—ideal for pretending you’re on vacation 24/7. With new flooring, new faucets, a new shower, and three mini-splits (so everyone can argue over their own temperature setting), it’s fully move-in ready. Great for a weekend retreat, rental, or your new “I live by the beach” bragging rights.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 0.7% in Oyster Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,483 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 590 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $757 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.05%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,000
• List price: $109,500
• Delta: -6.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2529 Mcdonald Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$119,000	$98	96
2525 Mcdonald Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	9mo	$109,900	$90	90
2515 Oyster Creek Bnd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	6mo	$137,500	$102	76
210 Lake Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	5mo	$115,000	$95	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $13,891
• Equity at exit: $16,327

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $52,807
• Equity at exit: $9,468

Cash invested: $30,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77541

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$574
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $109,500

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,375
• Closing costs: $3,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,500 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $109,500 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,500 Coming Soon 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,500 Coming Soon 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 666-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 580-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $109,500 Coming Soon 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,500 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,500 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,500 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,500 Active 199 DOM
16. 2025-11-13
    listed $109,500 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Need a getaway that’s close to the beach but far from chaos? This 3-bed, 2-bath mobile home is tucked in a quiet neighborhood—ideal for pretending you’re on vacation 24/7. With new flooring, new faucets, a new shower, and three mini-splits (so everyone can argue over their own temperature setting), it’s fully move-in ready. Great for a weekend retreat, rental, or your new “I live by the beach” bragging rights.

17. 2025-10-24
    historical
18. 2025-08-19
    price $109,500
19. 2025-07-03
    price $115,000
20. 2025-05-16
    price $119,000
21. 2025-04-29
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2025-03-31
    historical
23. 2025-02-20
    price $114,000
24. 2024-09-26
    listed $115,000 Active
25. 2024-09-25
    historical
26. 2013-01-01
    historical
27. 2011-11-28
    listed $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,774/yr (+$148/mo · 772.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,134
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$3,185
• Taxable income: $4,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,067
• After-tax cash flow: $4,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oyster Creek

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1483
• US rank: #25420

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oyster Creek, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,996
• Household income: $66,507
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 38% Two or more races 23% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.12%
• Current HPI: 265.9301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Listed $109,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $109,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $114,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-25 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2013-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-11-28 Listed $100,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.