31 Parker Ave · New City, NY 10956

$588,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1957 0.34 ac lot $285/sqft · 30% below area Est $843k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath Cape offering great potential with a full basement - A must see

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 154 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $588k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $588k).
• Recommended offer: $517k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.8% in New City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#111 in NY, #1,835 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Clarkstown Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #66 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $504k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $517,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.92%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $842,636
• List price: $588,000
• Delta: -30.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Birch Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,067 (+0%)	5mo	$865,000	$418	82
20 Grand St	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,873 (-9%)	7mo	$672,000	$359	68
5 Park Ter	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-3%)	4mo	$600,000	$300	63
5 Parker Ave	0.11mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,793 (-13%)	4mo	$780,000	$435	61
20 Badger St	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,256 (+10%)	1mo	$500,000	$222	58
46 Red Hill Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,770 (-14%)	5mo	$717,500	$405	55
13 Lindbergh Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,787 (-13%)	8mo	$600,000	$336	54
5 Raven Ter	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,883 (-9%)	2mo	$700,000	$372	54
127 Bellows Ln	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,300 (+12%)	7mo	$885,000	$385	53
63 Lindbergh Ln	0.36mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,780 (-14%)	6mo	$707,000	$397	46
183 New Hempstead Rd	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,308 (+12%)	3mo	$745,000	$323	40
101 New Valley Rd	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,774 (-14%)	5mo	$600,000	$338	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-78,160
• Equity at exit: $87,673

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-45,059
• Equity at exit: $50,839

Cash invested: $164,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10956

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,084
• Tax from tax record: −$1,148 /mo · $13,777/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,667

Max offer price $588,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,000
• Closing costs: $17,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
72 Schriever Ln New City, NY	4.0	2.5	2296	$6,000	$2.61	3d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $588,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $588,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $588,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $588,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $588,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $588,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $588,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $588,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $588,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $588,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $588,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $588,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $588,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $588,000 97-char remark

    Show marketing remark (97 chars)

    Well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath Cape offering great potential with a full basement - A must see

15. 2026-03-03
    price $589,000 97-char remark

    Show marketing remark (97 chars)

    Well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath Cape offering great potential with a full basement - A must see

16. 2026-01-15
    listed $599,000 Active 97-char remark

    Show marketing remark (97 chars)

    Well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath Cape offering great potential with a full basement - A must see

17. 2006-10-16
    soldstatus $503,500
18. 2006-10-09
    soldstatus $475,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Lovely col/cape front porch, 4-bed, new baths, family fm 18x20,beautiful deck over looking private yard. basement ready to finish, DONT' MISS THIS ONE . .MOTIVATED SELLER. .

19. 2006-08-21
    historical 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Lovely col/cape front porch, 4-bed, new baths, family fm 18x20,beautiful deck over looking private yard. basement ready to finish, DONT' MISS THIS ONE . .MOTIVATED SELLER. .

20. 2006-04-10
    listed $475,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Lovely col/cape front porch, 4-bed, new baths, family fm 18x20,beautiful deck over looking private yard. basement ready to finish, DONT' MISS THIS ONE . .MOTIVATED SELLER. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,777 · $1,148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,777 · $1,148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,937
• − Property taxes: −$13,777
• − Insurance: −$2,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$17,105
• Taxable loss: −$6,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,507
• After-tax cash flow: $4,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarkstown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620340
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $115,765
• Composite: 68.55/100
• National rank: #342
• State rank: #66 of 590 in NY

Livability — New City

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #1835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New City, NY
• City population: 31,420
• Population (ZIP): 31,420

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 19% Asian 13% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -530.90%
• Current HPI: 261.6277
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+23.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $588,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $589,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $503,500 Public Records
• 2006-10-09 Sold (MLS) $475,000 HGMLS
• 2006-08-21 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-04-10 Listed $475,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,777 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.