508 Dawson St · Wolf Point, MT 59201

$59,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1924

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Key facts

• Sunporch
• New flooring
• Back deck

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• BACK DECK
• SUNPORCH
• BATH UP HAS BEEN RENOVATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#34 in MT, #4,379 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, employment F.
• Wolf Point H S (town): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #271 of 339 in MT (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Southside School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #267 of 293 statewide, top 92%, 236 students, 0% FRL); Northside School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #130 of 146 statewide, top 90%, 151 students, 0% FRL); Wolf Point High School (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #119 of 132 statewide, top 90%, 225 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Roosevelt County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.02%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $35,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Dayton St	0.48mi	2/1.0	862 (-3%)	21mo	$34,200	$40	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $41,241
• Equity at exit: $36,681

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.19×
• Total profit: $102,220
• Equity at exit: $66,170

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59201

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,033/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $532

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $419	-5% $402	+0% $386	+5% $369	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $305	-5% $345	+0% $386	+5% $426	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $401	base $386	+0.5pp $370	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-07
   listed $59,000 Pending 169 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$1,033
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $3,932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$944
• After-tax cash flow: $3,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wolf Point H S
• NCES district ID: 3028620
• Math proficiency: 11% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,527
• Composite: 16.31/100
• National rank: #14269
• State rank: #271 of 339 in MT

Livability — Wolf Point

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #4379

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolf Point, MT
• Population (ZIP): 5,345

Population outlook (Roosevelt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,449 people
• By 2030: 14,496 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 16,710 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 18,950 · +40.9%
• By 2075: 24,541 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 27,573 · +105.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.90)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 56% White 32% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roosevelt

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.6) · D 42.9% · R 52.5% · Other 4.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: -9.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.6 2020: R+2.1 2016: R+6.3 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Current HPI: 188.8516
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

+18.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — HHLMLS
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $59,000 HHLMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $59,000 HHLMLS
• 2025-04-10 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $69,900 HHLMLS
• 2024-10-07 Relisted — HHLMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $79,900 HHLMLS
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $89,900 HHLMLS
• 2024-04-05 Listed $98,000 HHLMLS
• 2022-10-25 Listed $50,000 HHLMLS
• 1992-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,033 · -21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.