100 Lakeside Ranch Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 397 Days on market

Built 1972 4,713 sqft lot $143/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY. .. Welcome home to Lakeside Ranch, a gated 55+ community with NO LOT RENT! This 2 Bedroom/2 Bath home features a large living room that leads to the lovely Florida room. This open concept home has a tastefully renovated kitchen with lots of counterspace and cabinets, a dining room with built-in cabinetry, a large living room with lighted ceiling fan, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. Utility shed all offers additional storage space and includes washer and dryer. Sold Furnished or Vacant, your choice. HOA inscludes water, sewer, lawn service and security. The community features a large clubhouse with a variety of scheduled activities and holiday events, library, me

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lakefront community
• Utility shed

Tags

• LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY
• GATED COMMUNITY
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UTILITY SHED
• LARGE CLUBHOUSE
• BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available from Highway 27 South to community gate
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,716; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee $143 (includes common area taxes, pool, maintenance - structure and grounds, private road, recreational facilities, security, sewer, water); Association approval required; Community amenities: clubhouse, gated entry, pool, shuffleboard court, maintenance and security; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Boat parking; Carport (1 space)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One level; Faces west; Homesteaded
• Construction: Vinyl siding and other materials; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Screened porch; Storage; Concrete road surface; Lake access with private boat ramp and fishing pier

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 397 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $120k implies a 1233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 397 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.65%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,236
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $32,385
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $444	+0% $410	+5% $376	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $342	+0% $410	+5% $478	+10% $546
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $441	base $410	+0.5pp $379	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	4d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Likely covers: watersewersecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 397 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 396 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 395 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 394 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 392 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 389 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 388 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 387 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 386 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 383 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 381 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 380 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 379 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    status Active
15. 2026-04-30
    historical
16. 2025-04-25
    listed $120,000 Active
17. 2021-07-22
    listed $129,900 Active
18. 2020-01-26
    historical
19. 2019-12-02
    price $85,300
20. 2019-10-24
    listed $75,900 Active
21. 1993-11-04
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$790
• After-tax cash flow: $4,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1233.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-22 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-02 Price Changed $85,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-24 Listed $75,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,498 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.