615 Lexington Ave · Dayton, OH 45402

$18,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1909

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Investor Special & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; Prime Fixer-Upper with Incredible Potential! * * * * For Sale By Owner. * * Calling all investors, contractors, and savvy buyers looking for their next project! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers * * 1,904 sq ft of living space * * on a * * 4,800 sq ft lot * * and is ready for a full renovation to unlock its true value. This property is a true * * gut-to-the-studs opportunity * * , perfect for a complete transformation. With no known foundation issues, the structure provides a solid starting point for your vision. The home will require a * * new roof, new windows, and a full interior renovation * * , making it

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• New roof
• New windows

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• FULL INTERIOR RENOVATION
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1909; Two-story (living area spans multiple levels)
• Construction: Historic construction from 1909
• Exterior features: Located in the Southern Dayton View subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $888 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Cap rate 63.9% vs local median 7.3% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Wogaman Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #645 of 654 statewide, top 99%, 364 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $128 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $555 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $18,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 63.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 205.64%
• DSCR: 10.15
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,896
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 Lexington Ave	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,976 (+4%)	5mo	$35,000	$18	73
430 Lexington Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,788 (-6%)	9mo	$21,560	$12	71
1549 Cory Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,922 (+1%)	2mo	$195,000	$101	68
1725 W Grand Ave	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,629 (-14%)	2mo	$144,900	$89	66
1331 W Grand Ave	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,816 (-5%)	9mo	$40,000	$22	66
1606 W Grand Ave	0.11mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,148 (+13%)	5mo	$73,500	$34	63
1439 Kumler Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,768 (-7%)	5mo	$165,000	$93	62
1556 N Euclid Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,792 (-6%)	2mo	$120,000	$67	61
1133 Vernon Dr	0.32mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,680 (-12%)	1mo	$125,000	$74	58
549 Kenwood Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,840 (-3%)	5mo	$80,000	$43	54
1215 Cumberland Ave	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,108 (+11%)	0mo	$215,000	$102	49
601 Kenwood Ave	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,626 (-15%)	8mo	$235,000	$145	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.59×
• Total profit: $54,857
• Equity at exit: $2,758

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.34×
• Total profit: $126,086
• Equity at exit: $1,600

Cash invested: $5,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45402

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$97
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $403/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $888

Break-even live

Break-even rent $175

Max offer price $18,500

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $898	-5% $893	+0% $888	+5% $882	+10% $877
Rent	-10% $785	-5% $836	+0% $888	+5% $939	+10% $990
Rate	-1.0pp $897	-0.5pp $892	base $888	+0.5pp $883	+1.0pp $878

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,625
• Closing costs: $555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
424 Lexington Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,025	$0.67	45d	1	0.19mi
1119 Superior Ave Unit 1119 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,350	$0.94	5d	1	0.23mi
1378 Cory Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1300	$975	$0.75	45d	1	0.37mi
1011 N Broadway St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1700	$950	$0.56	45d	1	0.46mi
1225 Amherst Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1548	$1,300	$0.84	16d	1	0.53mi
1045 Philadelphia Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1290	$1,150	$0.89	4d	1	0.57mi
1045 Shakespeare Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,275	$0.89	45d	1	0.62mi
942 Harvard Blvd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,200	$0.75	5d	1	0.65mi
518 Delaware Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$750	$0.50	45d	1	0.76mi
437 Lorenz Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1322	$1,200	$0.91	25d	1	0.79mi
1743 Radcliffe Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1729	$1,200	$0.69	45d	1	0.84mi
132 Wroe Ave Unit 132 Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1934	$1,297	$0.67	45d	1	0.85mi
216 N Ardmore Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	5d	1	0.93mi
338 Kenwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1512	$1,195	$0.79	45d	1	0.94mi
136 Rockwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,200	$0.83	45d	1	1.01mi
138 Rockwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,200	$0.83	25d	1	1.01mi
234 Santa Clara Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,125	$0.82	45d	1	1.01mi
617 Westwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,050	$0.81	45d	1	1.02mi
18 Holt St Unit 24 Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,450	$1.07	16d	1	1.02mi
848 Riverview Ter Apt 607 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	25d	1	1.03mi
1543 W 5th St Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	2276	$1,200	$0.53	45d	1	1.04mi
40 S Mathison St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	16d	1	1.09mi
42 S Mathison St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,220	$0.94	5d	1	1.09mi
1927 Burroughs Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,245	$0.88	16d	1	1.11mi
167 W Hudson Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,185	$0.88	45d	1	1.13mi
2232 Salem Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,200	$0.96	5d	1	1.14mi
201 W Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,200	$0.84	45d	1	1.18mi
2247 Salem Ave Unit 2247 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,350	$1.04	5d	1	1.18mi
2247 Salem Ave Unit 2249 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,400	$1.08	45d	1	1.18mi
1501 Viola Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1952	$1,175	$0.60	16d	1	1.18mi
181 W Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	45d	1	1.18mi
439 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	1.24mi
127 Mound St Dayton, OH	3.0	3.0	1726	$1,600	$0.93	16d	1	1.25mi
101 W Norman Ave Unit 101 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1600	$945	$0.59	45d	1	1.25mi
534 Geyer St Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,530	$0.93	25d	1	1.32mi
41 W Fairview Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1452	$1,200	$0.83	16d	1	1.34mi
47 Leroy St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1456	$1,200	$0.82	45d	1	1.35mi
3668 Karwin Dr Unit 3672 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$995	$0.66	25d	1	1.36mi
3672 Karwin Dr Unit 3672 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$995	$0.66	45d	1	1.36mi
2141 Philadelphia Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1736	$1,395	$0.80	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $18,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $18,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $18,500 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-10
   listed $18,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $403 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $403 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,036
• − Property taxes: −$403
• − Insurance: −$92
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$538
• Taxable income: $11,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,645
• After-tax cash flow: $8,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 9,407
• Household income: $48,401
• Rent vs Own: 64.1% rent · 35.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.89%
• Current HPI: 149.7909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $18,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $403 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.