104 W Lawrence St · Dayton, TX 77535

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 1994 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on one quarter of an acre, this property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a covered back porch. Enjoy the convenience of a circle driveway leading to the back of the home, as well as a large two bay shop with 2 roll-up doors and 1 walkthrough door. Tucked away for privacy, yet still easily accessible to HWY 321 and town, this home offers a secluded retreat. Perfect for those seeking a tranquil lifestyle with the convenience of nearby amenities.

Key facts

• Secluded retreat
• Large two bay shop
• Covered back porch

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• LARGE TWO BAY SHOP
• SECLUDED RETREAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached oversized garage with workshop (2-car); Additional parking; Electric gate
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story; Entry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 1994; Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Fully fenced yard; Porch; Patio; Cleared lot; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 13x13; Bedroom (first floor) — 11x9; Bedroom (first floor) — 10x10
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor) — 8x15
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,121
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $39,221
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,525/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $462	+0% $424	+5% $386	+10% $347
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $358	+0% $424	+5% $490	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $458	base $424	+0.5pp $389	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2303 N Cleveland St Dayton, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	0.20mi
704 E Waring St Dayton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$1,200	$1.50	2d	14	0.75mi
1457 W Clayton St Dayton, TX	2.0	2.0	946	$1,099	$1.16	25d	1	0.95mi
800 E Houston St Dayton, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,775	$1.56	2d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 460-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,525 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$946/yr (+$79/mo · 62.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,525
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$742
• After-tax cash flow: $4,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2021-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,525 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.