461 W Center St · Snowflake, AZ 85937

$334,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1968 8,712 sqft lot $187/sqft · at area comps Est $330k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home available in the coveted area of Downtown Snowflake. Walk a couple blocks to the Pioneer Parade and December Town Lighting. Just up the road is the wonderful community Library. You have to see this home to be shocked at the space. 5 bedrooms and 2 living spaces, as well as three full bathrooms. Primary suite and second en suite. The convenience of Center Street without the traffic, as it is tucked back away from main intersections. Developed fruit trees as well as a greenhouse. The cold storage under the greenhouse is a great amenity. The whole yard is on a sprinkler system. Cosmetic updates a real possibility; come with an offer and let's make it work!!!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 122 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.9% in Snowflake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $334k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $208,833 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,286
• List price: $334,000
• Delta: 1.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
276 N 2nd St	0.36mi	5/2.0	1,916 (+8%)	4mo	$330,000	$172	64
15 N 1st East St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-1%)	11mo	$330,000	$188	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $159,373
• Equity at exit: $300,894

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $486,610
• Equity at exit: $648,889

Cash invested: $93,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85937

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,752
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,325/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,533

Max offer price $271,939

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,500
• Closing costs: $10,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $334,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $334,000 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-02-16
    listed $335,000 Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Charming home available in the coveted area of Downtown Snowflake. Walk a couple blocks to the Pioneer Parade and December Town Lighting. Just up the road is the wonderful community Library. You have to see this home to be shocked at the space. 5 bedrooms and 2 living spaces, as well as three full bathrooms. Primary suite and second en suite. The convenience of Center Street without the traffic, as it is tucked back away from main intersections. Developed fruit trees as well as a greenhouse. The cold storage under the greenhouse is a great amenity. The whole yard is on a sprinkler system. Cosmetic updates a real possibility; come with an offer and let's make it work!!!

18. 2025-10-16
    price $379,000
19. 2025-06-04
    price $413,000
20. 2018-04-18
    soldstatus $189,900
21. 2018-04-18
    soldstatus $189,900
22. 2008-12-23
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,325 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$880/yr (+$73/mo · 66.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,709
• − Property taxes: −$1,325
• − Insurance: −$1,670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$9,716
• Taxable loss: −$10,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,489
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowflake Unified District (4391)
• NCES district ID: 0407820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,767
• Composite: 45.91/100
• National rank: #2545
• State rank: #36 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Snowflake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #8817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Snowflake, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,975

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.31%
• Current HPI: 480.9577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+123.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $335,000 WMMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $379,000 WMMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $413,000 WMMLS
• 2018-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2018-04-18 Sold (MLS) $189,900 WMMLS
• 2008-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,325 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.