19 Beach Rd · Eldred, NY 12737

$375,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRISTINE "LIKE NEW' MOBILE HOME SITUATED PRIVATELY ON A BEAUTIFUL LANDSCAPED LOT HAS BEEN LOVINGLY CARED FOR AND READY FOR A NEW OWNER. HOME FEATURES FABULOUS ENCLOSED PORCH, LIVING ROOM WITH CATHEDRAL CEILING AND CEILING FAN, NICE OAK COUNTRY EAT IN KITCHEN WITH ADDITIONAL BREAKFAST PENINSULA, 2 NICE SIZED BEDROOMS , STORAGE SHED AND ADDITIONAL SEPARATE LAKEFRONT LOT WITH DOCK TO ENJOY LAKE ACTIVITIES ! MOHICAN LAKE IS PERFECT FOR BOATING, SKIING, SWIMMING, SAILING AND SO MUCH MORE!

Key facts

• Private deck
• Small fireplace
• Newer floors

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• LAKE ACCESS
• SMALL FIREPLACE
• NEWER METAL SHEET ROOF
• NEWER WELL PUMP
• NEWER FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (40.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.3% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 242 students, 38% FRL); Eldred Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 230 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $375k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $223,827 (40.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,015
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Otter Trl	0.52mi	2/1.0	744 (-5%)	2mo	$77,000	$103	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $176,324
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $540,625
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12737

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $965/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,789

Max offer price $298,153

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-329	+0% $-435	+5% $-541	+10% $-647
Rent	-10% $-612	-5% $-523	+0% $-435	+5% $-347	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-246	-0.5pp $-340	base $-435	+0.5pp $-532	+1.0pp $-631

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Beach Rd Glen Spey, NY	3.0	1.0	999	$2,000	$2.00	16d	1	0.07mi
44 Delaware Trl Glen Spey, NY	2.0	1.0	936	$3,500	$3.74	16d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $375,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   remarks 417-char remark
8. 2026-06-15
   listed $375,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $965 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,651 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,686/yr (+$224/mo · 278.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$965
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,149
• − Management: −$2,149
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$12,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,926
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,817

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 132.02%
• Current HPI: 443.8248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2243.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $375,000 FSBO.com
• 2016-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-12 Sold (MLS) $75,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-12 Sold (MLS) $75,000 HGMLS
• 2016-03-29 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2014-05-31 Listed $105,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-31 Listed $105,000 HGMLS
• 1998-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $965 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.