65 Lincolnshire Dr · Lincolnshire, IL
Flood risk 6/10 · Moderate
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.73%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 98°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Schools +7.1/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$299,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
Key facts
- Lincolnshire schools
- Existing ranch home
- 1.5 acre property
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community: No master association fee required; Community features include park, tennis courts, street lights, and paved streets
Exterior
- Parking: Attached garage (garage owned); Asphalt driveway; 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
- Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978 (age approx. 61–70 years)
- Construction: Brick, cedar, and frame construction; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
- Exterior features: Patio; Wooded lot; Riverfront property; Access to commuter bus and interstate; school bus service
Interior
- Kitchen: Kitchen
- Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level); Master bedroom (main level) with full bath; Three additional bedrooms on main level (each about 10 x 10)
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: 4 total rooms; Crawl space basement; Living room; Family room; Dining room
- Laundry & utility: Laundry room
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $795 ($10k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $299k).
- Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.0% in Lincolnshire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 70/100 on livability (#364 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
- Adlai E Stevenson Hsd 125 (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #3 of 620 in IL (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
- Zoned schools: Adlai E Stevenson High School (math 72% / reading 73%, grade B+, #7 of 693 statewide, top 1%, 4,489 students, 0% FRL).
- Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.52% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.19%
- Cash-on-cash
- 17.50%
- DSCR
- 1.78
- GRM
- 5.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $580,500
- Comps found
- 9
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Darby Ln | 0.36mi | 4/3.0 | 2,308 (-1%) | 11mo | $925,000 | $401 | 71 |
| 38 Lancaster Ln | 0.50mi | 4/2.0 | 2,396 (+3%) | 9mo | $805,000 | $336 | 62 |
| 4 Londonderry Ln | 0.71mi | 4/2.5 | 2,345 (+1%) | 9mo | $784,000 | $334 | 58 |
| 73 Cumberland Dr | 0.19mi | 4/3.0 | 2,587 (+11%) | 18mo | $667,000 | $258 | 55 |
| 8 Elsinoor Dr | 0.42mi | 4/2.5 | 2,600 (+12%) | 15mo | $570,000 | $219 | 48 |
| 23466 N Elm Rd | 0.69mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 2,393 (+3%) | 18mo | $529,000 | $221 | 42 |
| 1 Yorkshire Dr | 0.72mi | 4/2.5 | 2,512 (+8%) | 18mo | $507,000 | $202 | 38 |
| 66 Oakwood Ln | 0.54mi | 4/3.0 | 2,635 (+14%) | 15mo | $660,000 | $250 | 38 |
| 26 Melrose Ln | 0.47mi | 4/2.0 | 2,016 (-13%) | 21mo | $465,000 | $231 | 36 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 0.8%
- Equity multiple
- 1.03×
- Total profit
- $2,678
- Equity at exit
- $44,582
- IRR
- 10.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.83×
- Total profit
- $69,602
- Equity at exit
- $25,852
Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 60069
- Active inventory
- 42
- Price-to-rent
- 5.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $4,545 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,568
- Tax from tax record
- −$677 /mo · $8,118/yr
- Insurance
- −$125
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$954
- Net cashflow
- $795
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $74,750
- Closing costs
- $8,970
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 9 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 Lincolnshire Dr Lincolnshire, IL | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3000 | $4,500 | $1.50 | 15d | 1 | 0.03mi |
| 50 Cedar Ln Lincolnshire, IL | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3053 | $5,800 | $1.90 | 3d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 1206 Byrne Blvd Vernon Hills, IL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1870 | $3,600 | $1.93 | 7d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 1218 Byrne Blvd Unit 1 Vernon Hills, IL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2184 | $4,350 | $1.99 | 20d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 1220 Christine Ct Vernon Hills, IL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2230 | $3,950 | $1.77 | 24d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 1268 Georgetown Way Vernon Hills, IL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2319 | $3,800 | $1.64 | 21d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 31 Fox Trl Lincolnshire, IL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2633 | $5,900 | $2.24 | 1d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 2393 Madiera Ct Buffalo Grove, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2022 | $3,250 | $1.61 | 7d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 2401 Apple Hill Ln Buffalo Grove, IL | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2600 | $5,100 | $1.96 | 24d | 1 | 1.45mi |
Listing history 28 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $299,000 Active 309 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $299,000 Active 308 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $299,000 Active 307 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $299,000 Active 306 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $299,000 Active 304 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $299,000 Active 303 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $299,000 Active 300 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $299,000 Active 299 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $299,000 Active 298 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $299,000 Active 295 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $299,000 Active 294 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $299,000 Active 293 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $299,000 Active 292 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $299,000 Active 291 DOM
-
2025-11-19status Active
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-11-19status Active 253-char remark
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-11-06historical Contingent - Continue to Show
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-11-06historical Contingent - Continue to Show 253-char remark
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-10-31status Active
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-10-31status Active 253-char remark
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-10-24price $299,000
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-10-24price $299,000 253-char remark
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-10-24historical Contingent - Continue to Show
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-10-24historical Contingent - Continue to Show 253-char remark
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-10-02price $359,000 253-char remark
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-10-02price $359,000
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-08-13$399,000 Active
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
-
2025-08-13$399,000 Active 253-char remark
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Beautiful 1.5 acre lot on the river in Lincolnshire. Just 2 blocks from the park and beach. Schools are Stevenson High School and the award winning Lincolnshire schools. There is currently a 4 bedroom ranch on this lot which is considered a teardown.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $8,118 · $677/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $8,118 · $677/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 73% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $54,536
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,749
- − Property taxes
- −$8,118
- − Insurance
- −$6,614
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$4,363
- − Management
- −$4,363
- − Depreciation
- −$8,698
- Taxable income
- $5,632
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,352
- After-tax cash flow
- $8,184/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Adlai E Stevenson Hsd 125
- NCES district ID
- 1732580
- Math proficiency
- 72% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 73% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $146,434
- Composite
- 70.66/100
- National rank
- #253
- State rank
- #3 of 620 in IL
Livability — Lincolnshire
- Score
- 70/100
- State rank
- #364
- US rank
- #7563
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Lincolnshire, IL
- City population
- 8,728
- Population (ZIP)
- 8,728
Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 700,217 people
- By 2030
- 693,290 · -1.0%
- By 2040
- 673,588 · -3.8%
- By 2050
- 643,556 · -8.1%
- By 2075
- 562,792 · -19.6%
- By 2100
- 457,715 · -34.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (72%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 72% Asian 21% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 6% Portuguese 3%
- Foreign-born
- 24% · China, South Korea, Canada
- Languages at home
- 73% English-only · Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 5% Korean 4%
Political lean MEDSL · Lake
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -131.76%
- Current HPI
- 180.9549
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
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| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
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| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
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| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
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Price history
-25.1% since first listed14 events — show timeline
- 2025-11-19 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-19 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-06 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-06 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-31 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-31 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-24 Price Changed $299,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-24 Price Changed $299,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-24 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-24 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-02 Price Changed $359,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-02 Price Changed $359,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-08-13 Listed $399,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-08-13 Listed $399,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
-1.2%/yrLatest (2024): $8,118 · -27.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…