149 Orchard Hts · Narrowsburg, NY 18405

$22,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1978 $405/mo HOA · 33% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1.5 bath mobile home for sale in Orchard Heights in Beach Lake. Home is in good shape and with a little TLC could make a nice and very affordable place to live. Home only for sale. Lot rent of $405 to be paid monthly by buyer.

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 91 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.1% vs local median 1.7% in Narrowsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,108 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Wayne Highlands SD (town): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #115 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($156 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $20,475 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.46%
• DSCR: 4.62
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $38,105
• Equity at exit: $18,521

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.4%
• Equity multiple: 15.44×
• Total profit: $90,974
• Equity at exit: $38,214

Cash invested: $6,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18405

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $107/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$405
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $685

Max offer price $22,500

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $434	+0% $428	+5% $421	+10% $415
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $379	+0% $428	+5% $476	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $433	base $428	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,625
• Closing costs: $675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $405 · $4,860/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $22,500 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $22,500 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $22,500 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $22,500 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,500 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $22,500 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $22,500 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,500 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,500 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $22,500 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $22,500 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $22,500 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $22,500 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $22,500 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    listed $25,000 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    3-bedroom, 1.5 bath mobile home for sale in Orchard Heights in Beach Lake. Home is in good shape and with a little TLC could make a nice and very affordable place to live. Home only for sale. Lot rent of $405 to be paid monthly by buyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $107 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $244 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$136/yr (+$11/mo · 126.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,260
• − Property taxes: −$107
• − Insurance: −$112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − HOA: −$4,860
• − Depreciation: −$655
• Taxable income: $5,369
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,289
• After-tax cash flow: $3,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne Highlands SD
• NCES district ID: 4224970
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,476
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2292
• State rank: #115 of 539 in PA

Livability — Narrowsburg

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1108
• US rank: #22694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,611

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scottish 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.92%
• Current HPI: 333.3408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $25,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $107 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.