136 Oak Grove Pkwy · Oroville East, CA 95966

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 335 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $52k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is located on one of the largest lots in the Oak Sr. Community. The circular driveway leads to a carport with direct access into the home. Covered sitting areas on both sides of the home bring the outdoors in. The open floorplan has sliding doors to both porches. There is a formal living room with fireplace, spacious dining area, family room and separate coffe bar and open kitchen. The heating and air conditioning systems were recently replaced. . There are lovely double pane windows that showcase the beautiful foothills view. A portion of the full porch has been enclosed for a sewing room right off the primary bedroom. Large Storage Shed behind driveway. First time on the market

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Separate coffee bar
• Formal living room

Tags

• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• COVERED SITTING AREAS
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• SEPARATE COFFEE BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease (seller-reported) paid monthly
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park: Oaks Sr. Community; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway parking
• Utilities: 220V in kitchen; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Entry at main level; Mobile home model KeyBiscane (24' x 64'); Has a view
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site; Total of 1 story
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Patio; Gazebo; Shed; Community pool; Lake in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on ground level; Bonus room; Utility room
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with bathtub and tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $939 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 3.4% in Oroville East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,082 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ophir Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 447 students, 58% FRL); Ishi Hills Middle (302 students, 65% FRL); Las Plumas High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,287 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 376 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.15%
• DSCR: 4.66
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,744
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
330 Ridgecrest Pkwy	0.20mi	2/1.0	868 (+11%)	3mo	$57,000	$66	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $51,887
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.91×
• Total profit: $122,237
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $388/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $939

Break-even live

Break-even rent $392

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $967	-5% $953	+0% $939	+5% $925	+10% $912
Rent	-10% $814	-5% $877	+0% $939	+5% $1,002	+10% $1,064
Rate	-1.0pp $964	-0.5pp $952	base $939	+0.5pp $927	+1.0pp $914

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5560 Old Olive Hwy Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	15d	1	0.72mi
5580 Old Olive Hwy Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	15d	1	0.80mi
4666 Olive Hwy Unit 1 Oroville, CA	1.0	1.0	675	$1,500	$2.22	15d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $49,000 Active 335 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 330 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 329 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 327 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,000 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 317 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 316 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 315 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 314 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 313 DOM
18. 2025-07-21
    listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$388
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $11,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,672
• After-tax cash flow: $8,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oroville East

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1082
• US rank: #25347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oroville East, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-21 Listed $49,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $388 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.