1821 Molitor Ave · Panama City, FL 32405

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1956 7,062 sqft lot $163/sqft · 17% below area Est $237k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity Awaits on a Prime Corner Lot! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,202 square feet of living space and a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and flexibility. Situated on a corner lot, the property features a spacious 20x10 utility shed, perfect for storage, a workshop, or hobby space. Major system updates add value and peace of mind, including a roof replaced in 2019, hot water heater replaced in 2021, and HVAC system replaced in 2023. The home is in need of some TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize a space to their own taste. With solid bones and a functional layout, the potential here is undeniable. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from Historic St. Andrews, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, waterfront dining, and local attractions—all while being tucked away in a quiet neighborhood. Whether you're searching for your next project or a home to make your own, this property is full of possibilities.

Key facts

• Major system updates
• Prime corner lot
• Conveniently located

Tags

• PRIME CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS UTILITY SHED
• MAJOR SYSTEM UPDATES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $179k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.81%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,782
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -24.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2205 Forest Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,090 (-0%)	9mo	$205,000	$188	74
3942 W 21st Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+9%)	7mo	$237,000	$198	58
2003 Drummond Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+13%)	13mo	$225,000	$181	57
1708 Lake Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-9%)	9mo	$110,000	$110	56
3926 W 21st Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+9%)	10mo	$234,900	$196	56
2105 Mound Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,086 (-1%)	22mo	$245,000	$226	56
1711 Wilmont Ave Unit 1/2	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-5%)	21mo	$180,000	$173	50
1903 Arthur Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-2%)	13mo	$185,000	$173	46
1712 Wilmont Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,211 (+11%)	22mo	$230,000	$190	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,805
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,595
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,899/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $210	+0% $159	+5% $109	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $93	+0% $159	+5% $226	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $205	base $159	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	21d	1	0.24mi
1913 Laurel Ave Unit A Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,725	$1.39	13d	1	0.38mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	21d	1	0.52mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	21d	1	0.61mi
4455 W 19th St #17 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,400	$1.27	21d	1	0.61mi
4324 W 20th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$1,630	$1.63	13d	12	0.70mi
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	21d	1	0.79mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	21d	1	1.02mi
1301 Frankford Ave Apt B104 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	13d	1	1.15mi
2100 W Beach Dr Unit F102 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $179,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $195,000 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Opportunity Awaits on a Prime Corner Lot! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,202 square feet of living space and a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and flexibility. Situated on a corner lot, the property features a spacious 20x10 utility shed, perfect for storage, a workshop, or hobby space. Major system updates add value and peace of mind, including a roof replaced in 2019, hot water heater replaced in 2021, and HVAC system replaced in 2023. The home is in need of some TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize a space to their own taste. With solid bones and a functional layout, the potential here is undeniable. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from Historic St. Andrews, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, waterfront dining, and local attractions—all while being tucked away in a quiet neighborhood. Whether you're searching for your next project or a home to make your own, this property is full of possibilities.

19. 2026-03-16
    price $215,000 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Opportunity Awaits on a Prime Corner Lot! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,202 square feet of living space and a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and flexibility. Situated on a corner lot, the property features a spacious 20x10 utility shed, perfect for storage, a workshop, or hobby space. Major system updates add value and peace of mind, including a roof replaced in 2019, hot water heater replaced in 2021, and HVAC system replaced in 2023. The home is in need of some TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize a space to their own taste. With solid bones and a functional layout, the potential here is undeniable. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from Historic St. Andrews, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, waterfront dining, and local attractions—all while being tucked away in a quiet neighborhood. Whether you're searching for your next project or a home to make your own, this property is full of possibilities.

20. 2026-02-12
    price $220,000 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Opportunity Awaits on a Prime Corner Lot! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,202 square feet of living space and a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and flexibility. Situated on a corner lot, the property features a spacious 20x10 utility shed, perfect for storage, a workshop, or hobby space. Major system updates add value and peace of mind, including a roof replaced in 2019, hot water heater replaced in 2021, and HVAC system replaced in 2023. The home is in need of some TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize a space to their own taste. With solid bones and a functional layout, the potential here is undeniable. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from Historic St. Andrews, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, waterfront dining, and local attractions—all while being tucked away in a quiet neighborhood. Whether you're searching for your next project or a home to make your own, this property is full of possibilities.

21. 2026-01-13
    listed $229,000 Active 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Opportunity Awaits on a Prime Corner Lot! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,202 square feet of living space and a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and flexibility. Situated on a corner lot, the property features a spacious 20x10 utility shed, perfect for storage, a workshop, or hobby space. Major system updates add value and peace of mind, including a roof replaced in 2019, hot water heater replaced in 2021, and HVAC system replaced in 2023. The home is in need of some TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize a space to their own taste. With solid bones and a functional layout, the potential here is undeniable. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from Historic St. Andrews, you'll enjoy easy access to charming shops, waterfront dining, and local attractions—all while being tucked away in a quiet neighborhood. Whether you're searching for your next project or a home to make your own, this property is full of possibilities.

22. 2021-12-14
    historical
23. 2013-09-27
    soldstatus $65,900
24. 2013-08-30
    soldstatus $65,900
25. 2013-05-13
    listed $69,900
26. 2013-04-10
    listed $88,000
27. 2003-06-13
    soldstatus $75,000
28. 2003-05-30
    soldstatus $75,000
29. 2003-04-09
    listed $85,000
30. 1998-03-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,899
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$1,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$251
• After-tax cash flow: $2,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+333.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $195,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $215,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $229,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2013-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,900 Public Records
• 2013-08-30 Sold (MLS) $65,900 CPARMLS
• 2013-05-13 Listed $69,900 CPARMLS
• 2013-04-10 Listed $88,000 CPARMLS
• 2003-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-30 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CPARMLS
• 2003-04-09 Listed $85,000 CPARMLS
• 1998-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,899 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.