57 Waterview Pkwy · Wanakah, NY 14075

$42,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1986 $44/sqft · at area comps Est $42k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Brook Gardens Mobile Home Community! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a bright, open layout with laminate flooring throughout for a clean, modern feel. The spacious living area is filled with natural light and features a ceiling fan for added comfort. Enjoy the convenience of a private primary suite with its own full bathroom, along with a first-floor laundry room complete with cabinetry for extra storage. Speaking of storage, this home has plenty of it throughout. All appliances are included, making this a truly move-in-ready opportunity. Lot rent includes water, garbage, and taxes, and the location offers easy access to shopping, dining, and major roadways for

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Bright open layout
• Extra storage

Tags

• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXTRA STORAGE
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $816

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; Existing structure
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Membrane (rubber) roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Main level primary suite; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.9% vs local median 3.1% in Wanakah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#508 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Big Tree Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 540 students, 38% FRL); Frontier Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 1,071 students, 34% FRL); Frontier Senior High School (math 97% / reading 95%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,352 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $41,225 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.32%
• DSCR: 5.06
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,004
• List price: $42,500
• Delta: 1.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Waterview Pkwy	0.12mi	2/1.0	936 (-2%)	8mo	$25,000	$27	83
37 Waterview Pkwy	0.11mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	11mo	$56,000	$61	79
52 Waterview Pkwy	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-4%)	3mo	$65,000	$70	79
32 Brookridge Dr	0.33mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	2mo	$37,250	$40	77
41 S Roxbury Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-4%)	3mo	$40,000	$43	76
50 S Roxbury Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-4%)	6mo	$84,900	$92	74
87 Waterview Pkwy	0.20mi	2/1.5	924 (-4%)	11mo	$46,000	$50	73
2 Vibernum Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	10mo	$26,000	$28	71
17 Rippleway Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (+8%)	1mo	$28,000	$27	67
69 S Eaglecrest Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	994 (+4%)	3mo	$52,500	$53	67
10 Vibernum Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (-4%)	10mo	$23,500	$25	66
21 Brush Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,066 (+11%)	4mo	$93,500	$88	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $54,367
• Equity at exit: $6,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.8%
• Equity multiple: 12.51×
• Total profit: $136,961
• Equity at exit: $3,675

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $997/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $906

Break-even live

Break-even rent $410

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $930	-5% $918	+0% $906	+5% $894	+10% $881
Rent	-10% $783	-5% $844	+0% $906	+5% $967	+10% $1,028
Rate	-1.0pp $927	-0.5pp $916	base $906	+0.5pp $895	+1.0pp $883

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3580 Sowles Rd Hamburg, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	0d	1	0.87mi
4819 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,055	$1.76	0d	1	0.98mi
4600 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,750	$2.41	0d	13	1.26mi
4591 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,445	$1.96	0d	11	1.36mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $42,500 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $42,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $42,500 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $42,500 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $42,500 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $42,500 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $42,500 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-04-28
    listed $42,500 Active 815-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $997 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $997 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$997
• − Insurance: −$212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $10,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,606
• After-tax cash flow: $8,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wanakah

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #8972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $42,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $997 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.