1288 Derrick Dr · Stockton, CA 95206

$360,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1989 5,301 sqft lot $317/sqft · 16% below area Est $430k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,134 square feet of comfortable living space and is full of opportunity. Conveniently located near major freeways, shopping centers and schools. Enjoy a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The front and back yards provide a blank canvas ready for your personal touch.

Key facts

• Front and back yards
• Covered patio
• 5,301 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• FRONT AND BACK YARDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Electric: Other; Sewer: Other; Irrigation: Other; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; One story; Built in 1989
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Full metal and wood fencing; Pergola; Curb and gutter

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Range hood; Disposal; Wine refrigerator; Ceramic countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower stall and window; Secondary bath with tub/shower over and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; Family room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Joaquin Elementary (746 students, 70% FRL); Edison High (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #710 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 2,558 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $360k implies a 314% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,710 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,993
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: -16.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1288 Derrick Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,134 (0%)	0mo	$360,000	$317	100
1328 Luna Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-1%)	3mo	$420,000	$374	92
2353 Georgia Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,134 (0%)	5mo	$330,000	$291	79
2453 Lever Blvd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,134 (0%)	0mo	$330,000	$291	76
1013 Irene St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,218 (+7%)	4mo	$315,000	$259	73
769 Colorado Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,134 (0%)	4mo	$265,000	$234	70
1232 Denver A Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+4%)	4mo	$210,000	$178	70
1662 Lever Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,085 (-4%)	2mo	$347,500	$320	70
2128 Green River Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,234 (+9%)	5mo	$347,000	$281	61
539 Buena Vida Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+4%)	7mo	$310,000	$264	54
421 Howard St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,030 (-9%)	5mo	$350,000	$340	44
2022 Beau Pre St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-10%)	6mo	$430,000	$420	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-73,382
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-103,329
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95206

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,537/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,742

Max offer price $339,816

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $-12	+0% $-114	+5% $-216	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-319	-5% $-217	+0% $-114	+5% $-12	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $-23	base $-114	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2234 Wall St Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1452	$2,800	$1.93	16d	1	0.70mi
2234 Wall St Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1452	$2,800	$1.93	13d	1	0.70mi
137 W 3rd St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	833	$1,795	$2.15	25d	1	1.04mi
17 W 6th St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,850	$2.57	5d	1	1.14mi
114 E 4th St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	25d	1	1.20mi
1107 Le Corbusier Ct Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	12d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2009-03-31
   soldstatus $87,000
2. 2005-01-07
   soldstatus $285,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,537 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,736 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,199/yr (+$100/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,537
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$7,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,871
• After-tax cash flow: $500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 68,558
• Household income: $83,432
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1459.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 20% Asian 18% Black 11% White 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 46% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.27%
• Current HPI: 357.6069
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-69.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2009-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,537 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.