12914 Buckhorn Dr · Meadow Oaks, FL 34669

$289,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1983 9,772 sqft lot Est $293k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Price cut! Seller willing to assist with buyer’s closing costs with strong terms! Welcome to your updated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with modern upgrades. This home has impact windows throughout, a new roof, a new A/C system, and a new water heater! Inside, you’ll find brand new waterproof luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, fresh interior and exterior paint, and 2 fully renovated bathrooms. This home has a spacious layout with four generously sized bedrooms. Step outside to a large backyard with endless possibilities. This home combines quality upgrades with everyday comfort! Schedule your showing today! Some photos have been virtuall

Key facts

• New a c system
• New water heater
• New roof

Tags

• IMPACT WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW A C SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.22 acres (approximately 0.22 acre); Living area approximately 1,745 sq ft (estimated); Total building area approximately 2,095 sq ft (estimated); Green features: efficient HVAC and windows
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; No listed water source
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west; Planned unit development (PUD)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Lighting; Sidewalk; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.6% in Meadow Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#794 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,290/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 176% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $290k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,034 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.41%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,980
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12037 Shadow Ridge Blvd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-1%)	2mo	$290,000	$190	86
12125 Shadow Ridge Blvd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-9%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	79
12300 Great Basin Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+1%)	1mo	$294,740	$189	79
12200 Isle Royale Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+1%)	2mo	$291,268	$187	79
12197 Isle Royale Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+1%)	1mo	$295,772	$190	78
12216 Isle Royale Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+1%)	3mo	$296,964	$190	78
12213 Isle Royale Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+1%)	3mo	$291,772	$187	76
12501 Shadow Ridge Blvd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-5%)	2mo	$295,000	$201	73
12641 Shadow Ridge Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+2%)	3mo	$267,000	$169	68
12233 Isle Royale Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,739 (+13%)	3mo	$299,990	$173	62
12515 Shadow Ridge Blvd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,653 (+7%)	3mo	$355,000	$215	61
12415 Whisk Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-6%)	2mo	$310,999	$214	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,245
• Equity at exit: $43,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-63,106
• Equity at exit: $25,031

Cash invested: $81,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,518
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,997/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,496

Max offer price $260,793

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-81	+0% $-163	+5% $-244	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-343	-5% $-253	+0% $-163	+5% $-72	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-89	base $-163	+0.5pp $-238	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,375
• Closing costs: $8,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12909 Walnut Tree Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,095	$1.17	4d	1	0.53mi
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	6d	1	0.56mi
12130 Infinity Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1968	$2,000	$1.02	3d	1	0.80mi
12036 Tasha Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,155	$1.24	4d	1	0.89mi
13651 Meadow Green Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$2,750	$1.42	25d	1	1.19mi
11920 Palm Bay Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,100	$1.19	18d	1	1.23mi
11920 Palm Bay Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,100	$1.19	13d	1	1.23mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-22
   price $289,500
2. 2026-04-17
   price $289,900
3. 2026-03-20
   price $298,900
4. 2026-03-09
   status Active
5. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-05
   price $299,500
7. 2026-02-25
   listed $299,900 Active
8. 2025-09-30
   soldstatus $160,000
9. 2001-06-13
   soldstatus $77,000
10. 1999-06-18
    soldstatus $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,997 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,997 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,217
• − Property taxes: −$3,997
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − Depreciation: −$8,422
• Taxable loss: −$6,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,679
• After-tax cash flow: $-271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Meadow Oaks

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #794
• US rank: #18203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Oaks, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+314.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $289,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $298,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $299,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,997 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.