3890 Weber Rd · Bliss, NY 14569

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 1960 Good condition 0.92 ac lot $98/sqft · 49% below area Est $236k · 49% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled among mature trees on a private, gated road, this charming, seasonal cabin offers a unique opportunity to embrace quiet living in a serene, natural setting. Set on nearly an acre, the property provides a sense of seclusion that makes it easy to unwind and disconnect from the pace of everyday life. The welcoming sunroom is perfect for enjoying your morning coffee while overlooking the shared, stocked pond and taking in the surrounding wildlife. Inside, the home blends rustic character with comfort, featuring a kitchen equipped with a propane range and complemented by a wood-burning stove, a cozy living area centered around a fireplace, and a lofted sleeping space that overlooks the m

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt and metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built existing (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Dirt and gravel driveways; Propane tank (owned); Wooded, rectangular lot with seasonal access via a private road; Pond frontage (100 feet)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Sunroom/Florida room; Carpet, vinyl, and varied flooring; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,065 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Warsaw Central School District (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #431 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.90%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,833
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -49.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $18,676
• Equity at exit: $41,535

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $59,986
• Equity at exit: $55,638

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14569

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $130,000 Active 1301-char remark
16. 2025-10-26
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,149
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$276
• After-tax cash flow: $2,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming A-frame cottage offers a good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental due to its unique location and well-maintained features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace propane range with electric — More energy-efficient and safer
• Both Install modern lighting fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace propane range with electric — More energy-efficient and safer ↑
• Both Install modern lighting fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629940
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,692
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3718
• State rank: #431 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bliss

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1065
• US rank: #21289

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,606
• Population (ZIP): 6,372

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Current HPI: 263.9109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $120,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-26 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS