10 Frog Ave · Manchester, KY 40962

$154,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

0.50 ac lot Est $189k · 18% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to home, comfort, convenience, and opportunity! This charming single-family ranch offers approximately 1225 square feet of living space on the main floor, perfect for first-time homebuyers, downsizers, or savvy investors. Step inside to find original hardwood flooring that adds warmth and timeless appeal throughout much of the main level. The inviting living room features a cozy freestanding gas-log fireplace. The home also includes three bedrooms and one full bath on the main level, along with a functional layout featuring a kitchen, dining room, and spacious living area. Downstairs, you'll find an unfinished basement with an additional 1225 square feet, complete with a half bath,

Key facts

• Convenient driveway
• Attached carport
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FREESTANDING GAS-LOG FIREPLACE
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• CONVENIENT DRIVEWAY
• WALKING DISTANCE AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.5 acre (public records); Not on waterfront; Parcel: 083-10-00-013.00

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; Basement parking/entry
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story house; Total building area approximately 2,450
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built with conventional construction (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Privacy wood fencing; Shed(s); Rural and neighborhood views; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Double oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric and natural gas heating; Central air; Heat pump; Ceiling fans; Exhaust fan
• Interior features: Partially finished basement with full bath/stubbed plumbing, concrete floor, exterior and interior entry, and walk-out access; Fireplace; Window treatments, blinds and screens
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main level laundry; Vented exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.6% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#299 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clay County (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #130 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Elementary School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #242 of 676 statewide, top 37%, 388 students, 71% FRL); Clay County Middle School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #151 of 217 statewide, top 71%, 407 students, 74% FRL); Clay County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 717 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,691 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,650
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Locust St	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,200 (-10%)	6mo	$262,000	$119	50
307 River St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,155 (-12%)	5mo	$165,000	$77	41
129 Hensley Lane Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,120 (-14%)	15mo	$160,000	$75	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $74,431
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $227,143
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40962

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $132,216

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $154,900
17. 2026-04-18
    listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$1,441
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$4,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay County
• NCES district ID: 2101230
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $23,180
• Composite: 22.75/100
• National rank: #8031
• State rank: #130 of 165 in KY

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #14340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, KY
• Population (ZIP): 17,390

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,004 people
• By 2030: 19,285 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,619 · -11.9%
• By 2050: 15,782 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 11,489 · -42.6%
• By 2100: 7,949 · -60.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.3) · D 9.2% · R 89.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: -56.5pp · 2024: -80.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.3 2020: R+77.0 2016: R+75.6 2012: R+68.6 2008: R+56.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.40%
• Current HPI: 290.0025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $154,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $159,000 ImagineMLS