1678 Fitchetts Warf Rd · Mathews, VA 23119

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1962 1.00 ac lot $73/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3 bedroom ranch style home! Features plenty of rooms to utilize to your needs. Living areas offers abundance of natural lighting. Come see what this home has to offer you! Please share the 3D True Immersive Virtual tour with your client. It is non branded! Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 94 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.51%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $549,529
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -70.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $75,153
• Equity at exit: $71,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $189,208
• Equity at exit: $110,873

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23119

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $968	-5% $923	+0% $878	+5% $832	+10% $787
Rent	-10% $688	-5% $783	+0% $878	+5% $973	+10% $1,068
Rate	-1.0pp $958	-0.5pp $918	base $878	+0.5pp $836	+1.0pp $794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $170,000 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom ranch style home! Features plenty of rooms to utilize to your needs. Living areas offers abundance of natural lighting. Come see what this home has to offer you! Please share the 3D True Immersive Virtual tour with your client. It is non branded! Sold As-Is. This property is now under auction terms. All offers from interested buyers must be entered online at auction.com for the duration of the time that this property is in auction. Registration to bid is now available on the property's listing page on auction.com

18. 2026-04-30
    price $170,000 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom ranch style home! Features plenty of rooms to utilize to your needs. Living areas offers abundance of natural lighting. Come see what this home has to offer you! Please share the 3D True Immersive Virtual tour with your client. It is non branded! Sold As-Is. This property is now under auction terms. All offers from interested buyers must be entered online at auction.com for the duration of the time that this property is in auction. Registration to bid is now available on the property's listing page on auction.com

19. 2026-04-30
    price $170,000

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom ranch style home! Features plenty of rooms to utilize to your needs. Living areas offers abundance of natural lighting. Come see what this home has to offer you! Please share the 3D True Immersive Virtual tour with your client. It is non branded! Sold As-Is. This property is now under auction terms. All offers from interested buyers must be entered online at auction.com for the duration of the time that this property is in auction. Registration to bid is now available on the property's listing page on auction.com

20. 2026-03-17
    listed $190,000 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom ranch style home! Features plenty of rooms to utilize to your needs. Living areas offers abundance of natural lighting. Come see what this home has to offer you! Please share the 3D True Immersive Virtual tour with your client. It is non branded! Sold As-Is. This property is now under auction terms. All offers from interested buyers must be entered online at auction.com for the duration of the time that this property is in auction. Registration to bid is now available on the property's listing page on auction.com

21. 2026-03-17
    listed $190,000 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom ranch style home! Features plenty of rooms to utilize to your needs. Living areas offers abundance of natural lighting. Come see what this home has to offer you! Please share the 3D True Immersive Virtual tour with your client. It is non branded! Sold As-Is. This property is now under auction terms. All offers from interested buyers must be entered online at auction.com for the duration of the time that this property is in auction. Registration to bid is now available on the property's listing page on auction.com

22. 2026-03-17
    listed $190,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom ranch style home! Features plenty of rooms to utilize to your needs. Living areas offers abundance of natural lighting. Come see what this home has to offer you! Please share the 3D True Immersive Virtual tour with your client. It is non branded! Sold As-Is. This property is now under auction terms. All offers from interested buyers must be entered online at auction.com for the duration of the time that this property is in auction. Registration to bid is now available on the property's listing page on auction.com

23. 2026-03-16
    historical
24. 2026-01-24
    price $190,000
25. 2026-01-24
    price $190,000
26. 2026-01-24
    price $190,000
27. 2025-12-24
    price $200,000
28. 2025-12-24
    price $200,000
29. 2025-12-24
    price $200,000
30. 2025-11-21
    price $210,000
31. 2025-11-21
    price $210,000
32. 2025-11-21
    price $210,000
33. 2025-10-22
    price $220,000
34. 2025-10-22
    price $220,000
35. 2025-10-22
    price $220,000
36. 2025-09-26
    status Active
37. 2025-09-26
    historical
38. 2025-09-19
    listed $230,000 Active
39. 2025-09-19
    listed $230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $8,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,022
• After-tax cash flow: $8,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 181

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Danish 2%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-26.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $170,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $170,000 CBRAR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $170,000 WMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $190,000 WMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $190,000 CBRAR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $190,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $190,000 REINMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $190,000 CBRAR
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $190,000 WMLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $200,000 REINMLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $200,000 WMLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $200,000 CBRAR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $210,000 REINMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $210,000 CBRAR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $210,000 WMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $220,000 REINMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $220,000 WMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $220,000 CBRAR
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $230,000 WMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $230,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,398 · +37.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.