417 Shepley Dr · Glasgow Village, MO 63137

$118,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1953 6,094 sqft lot Est $87k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hello Investors!! Occupied rental for sale. Add these houses to your portfolio. Seller would prefer all 3 houses purchased at the same time. No showings until a contract is accepted. Call for details.

Key facts

• 6,094 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#756 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 274 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $118k implies a 321% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.99%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,108
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
363 Shepley Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	854 (0%)	3mo	$110,000	$129	95
10539 Renfrew Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	854 (0%)	2mo	$119,900	$140	92
240 Shepley Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	854 (0%)	3mo	$55,000	$64	85
10301 Renfrew Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	844 (-1%)	3mo	$110,000	$130	75
321 Caithness Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	902 (+6%)	3mo	$47,700	$53	75
237 Ben Nevis Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0	873 (+2%)	1mo	$89,000	$102	74
10519 Renfrew Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	982 (+15%)	2mo	$95,000	$97	65
10640 Spring Garden Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	873 (+2%)	1mo	$77,500	$89	63
200 Mcalpine Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	927 (+8%)	1mo	$90,000	$97	52
151 Brigadoon Cir	0.70mi	3/1.0	927 (+8%)	2mo	$34,900	$38	52
158 Monteith Cir	0.73mi	3/1.0	927 (+8%)	0mo	$94,900	$102	51
10300 Ross Cir	0.50mi	3/1.0	980 (+15%)	1mo	$105,000	$107	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $8,914
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $60,342
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63137

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $391	+0% $358	+5% $324	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $302	+0% $358	+5% $413	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $388	base $358	+0.5pp $327	+1.0pp $296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
409 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,095	$1.28	5d	1	0.03mi
10518 Gretna Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1082	$1,450	$1.34	24d	1	0.08mi
329 Midlothian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,195	$1.40	4d	1	0.08mi
457 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,350	$1.58	24d	1	0.09mi
10527 Prestwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	854	$1,395	$1.63	8d	1	0.11mi
432 Midlothian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,350	$1.21	11d	1	0.11mi
10519 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	982	$1,399	$1.42	44d	1	0.12mi
312 Banff Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,175	$1.38	24d	1	0.14mi
10524 Durness Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.15mi
323 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	3d	1	0.16mi
437 Lancashire Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1082	$1,395	$1.29	44d	1	0.18mi
251 Midlothian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,499	$1.42	44d	1	0.19mi
10617 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,299	$1.49	8d	1	0.20mi
10617 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,299	$1.49	44d	1	0.20mi
10432 Balmoral Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	826	$1,600	$1.94	2d	1	0.21mi
305 Lancashire Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,100	$1.29	18d	1	0.22mi
204 Tay Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	854	$1,500	$1.76	18d	1	0.27mi
10650 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,250	$1.46	8d	1	0.28mi
325 Caithness Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,425	$1.67	13d	1	0.28mi
325 Caithness Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,540	$1.80	44d	1	0.28mi
232 Cameron Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	984	$1,295	$1.32	13d	1	0.34mi
317 Cameron Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,350	$1.58	24d	1	0.34mi
743 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	932	$1,025	$1.10	8d	1	0.34mi
10309 Galloway Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	892	$1,295	$1.45	13d	1	0.34mi
416 Crawford Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	844	$1,499	$1.78	24d	1	0.36mi
10327 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	844	$1,199	$1.42	44d	1	0.37mi
241 Grampian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	837	$1,250	$1.49	44d	1	0.38mi
10401 Hobkirk Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	18d	1	0.39mi
237 Grampian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,499	$1.72	44d	1	0.39mi
157 Perthshire Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,850	$2.12	44d	1	0.43mi
10213 Durness Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,225	$1.31	44d	1	0.43mi
257 Glen Garry Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,025	$1.17	15d	1	0.44mi
1205 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	901	$1,350	$1.50	44d	1	0.44mi
1205 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	901	$1,325	$1.47	24d	1	0.44mi
10421 Gardo Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	15d	1	0.46mi
138 Grampian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,499	$1.72	44d	1	0.50mi
10063 Northgate Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,200	$1.14	44d	1	0.51mi
225 Ben Nevis Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,250	$1.43	4d	1	0.52mi
10201 Gourock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	886	$1,275	$1.44	44d	1	0.55mi
117 Glen Garry Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	4d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $118,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 201-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $118,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,354
• − Management: −$1,354
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $2,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $3,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Glasgow Village

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #23451

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glasgow Village, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,684
• Household income: $43,422
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1863.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 13% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.70%
• Current HPI: 130.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+306.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $118,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-22 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-21 Listed $32,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,062 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.