3535 Stine Rd #148 · Bakersfield, CA 93309

$38,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1989 9,999 sqft lot $52/sqft · 41% below area Est $64k · 41% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer opportunity on this Manufactured home. This 2-bedroom 1 bath mobile home has a carport patio and small yard. The Park is Stockdale Villas Mobile Home Park! Great investment has lots of amenities like park, pool, gym and community center. Monthly rent is $792 and includes water. Needs your imagination and TLC and this one is a money maker. Owner installed a new ac system 3 years ago Seller extremely motivated - bring your CASH offer and let's get it sold!

Key facts

• Community center
• Carport patio
• New ac system

Tags

• CARPORT PATIO
• SMALL YARD
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• NEW AC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association clubhouse/recreation; Association gym/exercise; Association pool; Association park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home zoning; Vacant occupancy
• Construction: Composition roof; Concrete/perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Community pool; Located in Spice Tract neighborhood; Cross street: Planz Rd; Leased space (manufactured home space)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Range/oven; Evaporative cooling

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $38,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$64,039) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $825 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Cap rate 32.3% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Panama-Buena Vista Union (urban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #542 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louise Sandrini Elementary (597 students, 92% FRL); O. J. Actis Junior High (680 students, 83% FRL); West High (reading 90%, 2,025 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 51% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.04%
• DSCR: 5.14
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,039
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -40.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $46,657
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.28×
• Total profit: $109,399
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93309

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $187/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $292

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $847	-5% $836	+0% $825	+5% $814	+10% $803
Rent	-10% $719	-5% $772	+0% $825	+5% $878	+10% $931
Rate	-1.0pp $844	-0.5pp $835	base $825	+0.5pp $815	+1.0pp $805

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4701 Beechwood St #67 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	528	$1,275	$2.41	4d	1	0.15mi
4600 Beechwood St Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	642	$1,550	$2.41	12d	1	0.17mi
3800 Stine Rd Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	565	$1,250	$2.21	45d	1	0.21mi
3800 Stine Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	480	$1,250	$2.60	20d	2	0.21mi
3109 Edmonton St Unit D Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	725	$1,195	$1.65	4d	1	0.25mi
3000 Stine Rd Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	595	$1,015	$1.71	45d	1	0.32mi
3000 New Stine Rd Unit 20-03 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,125	$1.73	45d	1	0.33mi
4809 Hahn Ave #24 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	690	$1,450	$2.10	4d	1	0.38mi
4301 Poach St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	475	$1,325	$2.79	23d	1	0.78mi
4220 Parker Ave Unit C5 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	4d	1	0.97mi
4220 Parker Ave Apt A1 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	45d	1	0.97mi
3401 Wible Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	45d	1	1.00mi
2801 Wible Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	4d	2	1.03mi
5051 Ming Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,460	$1.58	4d	9	1.05mi
5100 Ming Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,300	$1.77	4d	9	1.12mi
2224 S Real Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	611	$1,125	$1.84	4d	1	1.12mi
1400 Valhalla Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	665	$1,345	$2.02	25d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 464-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $38,000 Active 464-char remark
3. 2025-12-23
   price $44,950
4. 2025-12-05
   listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $187 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $289 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$102/yr (+$8/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$187
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $9,859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,366
• After-tax cash flow: $7,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Panama-Buena Vista Union
• NCES district ID: 0606390
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,361
• Composite: 41.71/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #542 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,217
• Household income: $63,544
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3180.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 30% Two or more races 29% Black 8% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.97%
• Current HPI: 376.8674
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $38,000 GEMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $44,950 GEMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $50,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $187 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.