5850 Havana Mist Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$265,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 $97/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Rio Floor Plan - This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas with access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for enhanced comfort and privacy, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Single-floor living

Tags

• SINGLE-FLOOR LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Association fee: $1,160 annually
• HOA & community: Community managed by Evergreen Lifestyles Management; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction; New construction by Lennar Homes; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick exterior; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 15); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $265,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $358,788.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $266k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $249,717 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,788
• List price: $265,990
• Delta: -20.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-82,312
• Equity at exit: $53,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-121,973
• Equity at exit: $31,021

Cash invested: $100,461 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,882
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,830

Max offer price $312,350

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-60	-5% $-161	+0% $-263	+5% $-364	+10% $-466
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-362	+0% $-263	+5% $-164	+10% $-66
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-172	base $-263	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,697
• Closing costs: $10,764
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.37mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.39mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	0d	25	0.48mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	0.60mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	0.85mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	0.90mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	0.98mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.00mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	1.04mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	1.05mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	1.07mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	1.10mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	26d	1	1.15mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	1.16mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	1.18mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	14d	1	1.18mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.18mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.19mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.22mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.22mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.22mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	1.23mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	45d	1	1.23mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,024	$1.60	0d	17	1.27mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,990 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $265,990 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 600-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $271,790 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $271,790 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $271,790 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $271,790 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $271,790 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $271,790 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,740 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,740 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,740 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,740 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,740 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,740 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,740 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $285,190 451-char remark
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $289,990 Active 451-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,868 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,576/yr (+$298/mo · 276.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,098
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$1,794
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,397
• − Management: −$2,397
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$10,437
• Taxable loss: −$9,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,307
• After-tax cash flow: $-847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $265,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $271,790 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $280,740 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $289,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $299,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $285,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $289,990 HARMLS