9444 Harbour Point Dr #264 · Elk Grove, CA 95758

$284,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 767 sqft · Condo public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1999 $372/sqft · 16% below area Est $341k · 16% under $180/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Somerfield at Lakeside, a gated community in Elk Grove's Laguna area. This upstairs 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom condo offers 767 sq ft with a functional layout and no neighbors above. Open living area, well-designed kitchen, and dedicated indoor laundry area. Clean, simple, and easy to maintain. Conveniently located near I-5, shopping, dining, parks, and Elk Grove schools. Community amenities include pool, fitness center, clubhouse, and maintained grounds. A great opportunity for a buyer ready to transition from renting to ownership.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• DEDICATED INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.8% in Elk Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,989 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,305
• List price: $284,999
• Delta: -16.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-73,605
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-107,222
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95758

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,388/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,627

Max offer price $216,971

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-224	-5% $-304	+0% $-385	+5% $-466	+10% $-546
Rent	-10% $-554	-5% $-470	+0% $-385	+5% $-301	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-242	-0.5pp $-313	base $-385	+0.5pp $-459	+1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9444 Harbour Point Dr Elk Grove, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,224	$2.22	2d	10	0.01mi
9130 Nolan St Elk Grove, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,965	$2.00	2d	4	0.88mi
3300 Renwick Ave Elk Grove, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,909	$1.95	3d	2	1.06mi
10270 E Taron Dr Elk Grove, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,133	$2.12	2d	16	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $284,999 Pending 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,999 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,999 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $284,999 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $289,999 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,999 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,999 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,999 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,999 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,388 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,387 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$3,388
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$9,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,318
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 65,725
• Household income: $117,017
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1653.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Asian 27% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.00%
• Current HPI: 309.0545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,388 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.