650 Main St · Centerville, SD 57014

$159,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1899

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• Large walk-in closet
• Built 1899
• Listed 15 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• BASEMENT PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• 1 BLOCK FROM THE SCHOOL
• 2 BLOCKS FROM DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-886/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Centerville School District 60-1 (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #67 of 148 in SD (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Turner County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Turner County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,461 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $17,949
• Equity at exit: $75,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $66,210
• Equity at exit: $119,205

Cash invested: $44,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57014

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $146,450

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-29	+0% $-74	+5% $-119	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-120	+0% $-74	+5% $-27	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-33	base $-74	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,875
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $159,500 Under Contract 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,500 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,500 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,500 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,500 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,500 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $159,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,089 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$902/yr (+$75/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable loss: −$3,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$893
• After-tax cash flow: $6/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centerville School District 60-1
• NCES district ID: 4611760
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,682
• Composite: 44.66/100
• National rank: #6001
• State rank: #67 of 148 in SD

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #13995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, SD
• City population: 1,711
• Population (ZIP): 1,711

Population outlook (Turner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,006 people
• By 2030: 7,850 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 7,446 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 6,970 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 6,241 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 5,788 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 20% Iranian 12% Scottish 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Turner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.3) · D 23.0% · R 74.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -51.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.3 2020: R+47.3 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+31.0 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Current HPI: 206.9102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $159,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.