11805 Cove · Lucerne Valley, CA 92356

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,793 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1952 41 ac lot $106/sqft · 42% below area Est $330k · 42% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

42.92 acres of opportunity!! ?Two parcels totaling 42.92 acres—one parcel is 41.08 acres and the second is 1.84 acres. The property includes a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, a 4-car detached garage/shop, and a chicken coop/barn. There are two water wells, one of which is approximately 5 years old. Endless possibilities for ranching, farming, or creating your own private retreat. Priced to sell, won’t last long. Call today for more information or to schedule a showing.

Key facts

• Two parcels
• Water wells
• Chicken coop

Tags

• TWO PARCELS
• WATER WELLS
• CHICKEN COOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.7% in Lucerne Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,358 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.05%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,049
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -42.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $126,147
• Equity at exit: $171,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $353,506
• Equity at exit: $369,128

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92356

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,221/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,490

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $411	+0% $357	+5% $303	+10% $249
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $280	+0% $357	+5% $433	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $405	base $357	+0.5pp $308	+1.0pp $257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $190,000 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    42.92 acres of opportunity!! ?Two parcels totaling 42.92 acres—one parcel is 41.08 acres and the second is 1.84 acres. The property includes a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, a 4-car detached garage/shop, and a chicken coop/barn. There are two water wells, one of which is approximately 5 years old. Endless possibilities for ranching, farming, or creating your own private retreat. Priced to sell, won’t last long. Call today for more information or to schedule a showing.

16. 2026-03-18
    price $210,000 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    42.92 acres of opportunity!! ?Two parcels totaling 42.92 acres—one parcel is 41.08 acres and the second is 1.84 acres. The property includes a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, a 4-car detached garage/shop, and a chicken coop/barn. There are two water wells, one of which is approximately 5 years old. Endless possibilities for ranching, farming, or creating your own private retreat. Priced to sell, won’t last long. Call today for more information or to schedule a showing.

17. 2026-02-09
    listed $225,000 Active 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    42.92 acres of opportunity!! ?Two parcels totaling 42.92 acres—one parcel is 41.08 acres and the second is 1.84 acres. The property includes a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, a 4-car detached garage/shop, and a chicken coop/barn. There are two water wells, one of which is approximately 5 years old. Endless possibilities for ranching, farming, or creating your own private retreat. Priced to sell, won’t last long. Call today for more information or to schedule a showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$223/yr (+$19/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,221
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,864
• − Management: −$1,864
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$296
• After-tax cash flow: $3,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne Valley

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1358
• US rank: #26994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lucerne Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,665

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.34%
• Current HPI: 440.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $190,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $225,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,221 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.