15225 E State Fair St · Detroit, MI 48205

$34,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 763 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1948 4,792 sqft lot $46/sqft · 33% below area Est $52k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom ranch ready for your vision! This home offers a great layout with comfortable living space and endless potential for updates and personalization. Perfect for investors or buyers looking to add their own touch, the property provides a solid foundation and opportunity to build equity with a little TLC. Conveniently sized yard and two car garage. Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.5% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $35k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $31,759 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.83%
• DSCR: 4.37
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,473
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -33.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15871 Fairmount Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	719 (-6%)	10mo	$14,500	$20	62
15663 Carlisle St	0.52mi	2/1.0	783 (+3%)	15mo	$60,000	$77	59
15294 Saratoga St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	802 (+5%)	7mo	$65,000	$81	48
16100 Liberal St	0.61mi	2/1.0	679 (-11%)	7mo	$15,900	$23	47
18930 Morang Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0	840 (+10%)	10mo	$55,000	$65	46
15651 E 7 Mile Rd Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0	864 (+13%)	12mo	$70,000	$81	42
15651 E 7 Mile Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0	864 (+13%)	12mo	$70,000	$81	42
14027 Tacoma St	0.74mi	2/1.5	860 (+13%)	2mo	$34,000	$40	41
16228 Liberal St	0.66mi	2/1.0	680 (-11%)	14mo	$50,000	$74	39
15265 Eastwood St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	857 (+12%)	14mo	$76,000	$89	34
16069 Fairmount Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	870 (+14%)	17mo	$85,000	$98	31
16103 Carlisle St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	875 (+15%)	13mo	$57,000	$65	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $31,858
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $71,177
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48205

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $832/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $338

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15030 Rossini Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	720	$800	$1.11	43d	1	0.08mi
15663 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	803	$1,050	$1.31	14d	1	0.51mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	17d	1	0.61mi
15909 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$1,266	$1.42	43d	1	0.63mi
16291 Eastburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	24d	1	0.70mi
16212 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	12d	1	0.77mi
16410 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	14d	1	0.78mi
14068 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	24d	1	0.80mi
16241 Seven Mile E Unit 4 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	650	$650	$1.00	43d	1	0.80mi
15494 Mapleridge St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	937	$1,275	$1.36	43d	1	0.99mi
13669 Pfent St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,374	$1.33	17d	1	1.02mi
12716 Riad St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	974	$1,275	$1.31	17d	1	1.03mi
20215 Schoenherr St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	1.09mi
20227 Pelkey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,350	$1.39	17d	1	1.15mi
20242 Hickory St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	747	$1,300	$1.74	11d	1	1.19mi
15010 Cedargrove St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1018	$1,350	$1.33	43d	1	1.22mi
12201 Morang Ave Unit 8 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	610	$875	$1.43	43d	1	1.23mi
19152 Woodside St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	916	$1,500	$1.64	17d	1	1.24mi
19144 Moross Rd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	43d	1	1.25mi
20027 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	17d	1	1.25mi
13501 Vernon Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	24d	1	1.27mi
19220 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,350	$1.32	17d	1	1.29mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	14d	1	1.33mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	43d	1	1.33mi
11776 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	964	$1,150	$1.19	11d	1	1.43mi
19442 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	17d	1	1.45mi
19143 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,225	$1.14	17d	1	1.45mi
11611 Morang Ave Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,040	$1.47	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $34,900 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-04-06
    price $34,900 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Two bedroom ranch ready for your vision! This home offers a great layout with comfortable living space and endless potential for updates and personalization. Perfect for investors or buyers looking to add their own touch, the property provides a solid foundation and opportunity to build equity with a little TLC. Conveniently sized yard and two car garage. Sold AS-IS.

14. 2026-04-06
    price $34,900 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Two bedroom ranch ready for your vision! This home offers a great layout with comfortable living space and endless potential for updates and personalization. Perfect for investors or buyers looking to add their own touch, the property provides a solid foundation and opportunity to build equity with a little TLC. Conveniently sized yard and two car garage. Sold AS-IS.

15. 2026-02-19
    listed $44,900 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Two bedroom ranch ready for your vision! This home offers a great layout with comfortable living space and endless potential for updates and personalization. Perfect for investors or buyers looking to add their own touch, the property provides a solid foundation and opportunity to build equity with a little TLC. Conveniently sized yard and two car garage. Sold AS-IS.

16. 2026-02-19
    listed $44,900 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Two bedroom ranch ready for your vision! This home offers a great layout with comfortable living space and endless potential for updates and personalization. Perfect for investors or buyers looking to add their own touch, the property provides a solid foundation and opportunity to build equity with a little TLC. Conveniently sized yard and two car garage. Sold AS-IS.

17. 2024-04-20
    historical
18. 2024-04-20
    historical
19. 2024-03-02
    price $45,000
20. 2024-03-01
    price $45,000
21. 2024-02-12
    price $50,000
22. 2024-02-12
    price $50,000
23. 2024-01-18
    status Active
24. 2024-01-18
    status Active
25. 2024-01-01
    historical
26. 2024-01-01
    historical
27. 2023-10-24
    listed $52,500 Active
28. 2023-10-20
    listed $52,500 Active
29. 2023-10-13
    historical
30. 2023-10-13
    historical
31. 2023-07-21
    listed $59,900 Active
32. 2023-07-20
    listed $59,900 Active
33. 2023-07-12
    historical
34. 2023-07-12
    historical
35. 2023-05-30
    price $59,900
36. 2023-05-30
    price $59,900
37. 2023-04-20
    listed $64,900 Active
38. 2023-04-20
    listed $64,900 Active
39. 2008-01-02
    soldstatus $14,500
40. 2007-12-31
    historical
41. 2007-10-22
    listed $19,900
42. 2000-12-06
    soldstatus $13,787
43. 1993-11-05
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$832
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,075
• − Management: −$1,075
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $7,308
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,754
• After-tax cash flow: $5,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 34,187
• Household income: $38,966
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 93% White 3% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.80%
• Current HPI: 235.0926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+168.5% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-19 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-19 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-03-02 Price Changed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-01-18 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-18 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-24 Listed $52,500 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-20 Listed $52,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-07-21 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-07-20 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-05-30 Price Changed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-30 Price Changed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-04-20 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-01-02 Sold (MLS) $14,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-12-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-10-22 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $13,787 Public Records
• 1993-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $832 · -54.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.