22620 Gage Loop #27 · Land O' Lakes, FL 34639

$154,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Condo public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1988 $352/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to this beautifully reimagined townhome tucked inside one of Land O’ Lakes’ most serene, tree-lined communities. From the moment you walk in, the open-concept layout feels bright, effortless, and designed for real life. The kitchen is the showpiece. Quartz countertops, updated appliances, clean modern finishes, and abundant natural light create a space that feels elevated yet inviting. Whether you’re hosting friends or enjoying a quiet night in, it flows seamlessly into the living area and out to your private, picket-fenced backyard retreat. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite offers double closets and a private balcony ove

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Quartz countertops
• Double closets

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PICKET-FENCED BACKYARD
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• DOUBLE CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total monthly fees reported as $352; total annual fees reported as $4,224
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Terra Management; Monthly association fee approximately $352 (includes structure and grounds maintenance, pool, private road); Community pool; Pets allowed (up to 60 lbs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Completed condition; Two stories; Facing west; First-floor unit
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built footprint approximately 1160 total building area
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Thermostat; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.7% in Land O' Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $154k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,760 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.65%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-20,499
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-22,398
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34639

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,533/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$352
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $175	+0% $131	+5% $88	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $53	+0% $131	+5% $210	+10% $288
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $170	base $131	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22630 Gage Loop #7 Land O Lakes, FL	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,600	$1.54	25d	1	0.07mi
4352 Banjo Lake Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,400	$1.74	25d	1	0.11mi
4401 Longshore Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,850	$1.81	25d	1	0.39mi
23117 Dover Dr Land O Lakes, FL	1.0	1.0	1034	$797	$0.77	25d	1	0.49mi
23223 Club Villas Dr Unit 23223 Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,800	$1.51	15d	1	0.67mi
4201 Parkway Blvd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	25d	1	0.74mi
21915 Bell Lake Rd Unit 2 Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	4d	1	0.84mi
3819 Biscay Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,995	$1.68	13d	1	1.29mi
4934 Addessi Loop Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0	1.0	713	$1,950	$2.73	6d	1	1.37mi
18781 Eden Ln Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1231	$2,495	$2.03	6d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $352 · $4,224/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   price $154,000
3. 2026-04-27
   status Active
4. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-19
   price $157,000
6. 2026-02-24
   listed $159,000 Active
7. 2025-08-21
   historical $1,700
8. 2025-07-26
   listed $1,700
9. 2025-05-20
   historical
10. 2025-05-15
    price $177,000
11. 2025-04-07
    price $180,000
12. 2025-02-13
    listed $189,000 Active
13. 2024-07-24
    historical $1,600
14. 2024-07-23
    historical
15. 2024-07-08
    listed $1,600
16. 2024-07-03
    historical $1,600
17. 2024-06-26
    price $1,600
18. 2024-05-30
    status Active
19. 2024-05-25
    status Pending
20. 2024-05-17
    listed $195,000 Active
21. 2024-04-12
    listed $1,750
22. 2024-03-05
    historical $1,700
23. 2024-03-01
    listed $1,700
24. 2024-02-09
    historical $1,750
25. 2024-02-02
    listed $1,750
26. 2024-01-24
    historical $1,800
27. 2024-01-02
    listed $1,800
28. 2023-12-19
    historical $1,800
29. 2023-12-12
    price $1,800
30. 2023-12-02
    listed $1,850
31. 2023-11-19
    historical $1,850
32. 2023-11-16
    price $1,850
33. 2023-11-01
    listed $1,900
34. 2023-10-25
    historical $1,950
35. 2023-10-07
    listed $1,950
36. 2022-01-05
    soldstatus $90,000
37. 2016-11-09
    historical
38. 2016-05-20
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,533 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,533 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$2,533
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − HOA: −$4,224
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$156
• After-tax cash flow: $1,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Land O' Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Land O' Lakes, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,831
• Household income: $101,486
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.35%
• Current HPI: 280.2986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.87%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+33.9% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $154,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $157,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Rental Removed $1,700 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-26 Listed for Rent $1,700 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $177,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-24 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-03 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $1,750 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-05 Rental Removed $1,700 RENT.
• 2024-03-01 Listed for Rent $1,700 RENT.
• 2024-02-09 Rental Removed $1,750 RENT.
• 2024-02-02 Listed for Rent $1,750 RENT.
• 2024-01-24 Rental Removed $1,800 RENT.
• 2024-01-02 Listed for Rent $1,800 RENT.
• 2023-12-19 Rental Removed $1,800 RENT.
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $1,800 RENT.
• 2023-12-02 Listed for Rent $1,850 RENT.
• 2023-11-19 Rental Removed $1,850 RENT.
• 2023-11-16 Price Changed $1,850 RENT.
• 2023-11-01 Listed for Rent $1,900 RENT.
• 2023-10-25 Rental Removed $1,950 RENT.
• 2023-10-07 Listed for Rent $1,950 RENT.
• 2022-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-20 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,533 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.