3338 Bob Tolbert Rd · Holley, FL 32566

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2018 0.55 ac lot Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a spacious 0.553-acre lot in Navarre. This residence features a thoughtfully designed split floor plan that optimizes space and functionality, making it an ideal choice for a variety of lifestyles. As you enter, you’ll immediately notice the elegant wood-look LVP flooring that flows seamlessly throughout the main living areas, offering both durability and a modern aesthetic. The open-concept layout encompasses the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a cohesive space perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The vaulted ceilings enhance the sense of space, allowing for abundant natural light to fill the home. The kitchen is well-appointed and features a generous layout, complemented by a large laundry area that also serves as a walk-in pantry, ensuring ample storage for all your culinary needs. The guest bedroom is comfortably carpeted, providing a warm and inviting space for family or guests. Step outside to the expansive backyard, which boasts an open deck area—ideal for outdoor gatherings or enjoying quiet moments in your private retreat. With no rear neighbors, you can relish in the tranquility and privacy this property offers. The shed in the back provides additional storage, perfect for garden tools or outdoor equipment. This home combines comfort and functionality with easy access to local amenities, parks, and the beautiful Navarre Beach. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this delightful property your own!

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Large laundry area
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD LOOK LVP FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE LAUNDRY AREA
• WALK IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.55 acres (dimensions: 140 x 212 x 143 x 350); Road frontage on a county road; Zoned County, Mobile Home
• Financial info: Conventional and other buyer financing accepted

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (detached) with 2 covered spaces; Covered parking; RV parking available; Boat parking; Golf cart covered and open parking; Guest parking
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Phone service available; TV cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Construction complete
• Construction: Built in 2018; Frame construction; Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Yard building; Interior lot (not on perimeter)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric stove/oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling present
• Interior features: Single-story layout; Smoke detector installed; Yard building (exterior structure accessible from interior)
• Laundry & utility: Has heating; Has cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#698 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Holley-Navarre Primary (771 students, 41% FRL); Holley-Navarre Middle School (math 71% / reading 63%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 830 students, 42% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.93%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3338 Bob Tolbert Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	840 (0%)	0mo	$145,000	$173	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,442
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $48,032
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $362/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $607	-5% $565	+0% $523	+5% $480	+10% $438
Rent	-10% $382	-5% $452	+0% $523	+5% $593	+10% $663
Rate	-1.0pp $598	-0.5pp $561	base $523	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1530 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a spacious 0.553-acre lot in Navarre. This residence features a thoughtfully designed split floor plan that optimizes space and functionality, making it an ideal choice for a variety of lifestyles. As you enter, you’ll immediately notice the elegant wood-look LVP flooring that flows seamlessly throughout the main living areas, offering both durability and a modern aesthetic. The open-concept layout encompasses the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a cohesive space perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The vaulted ceilings enhance the sense of space, allowing for abundant natural light to fill the home. The kitchen is well-appointed and features a generous layout, complemented by a large laundry area that also serves as a walk-in pantry, ensuring ample storage for all your culinary needs. The guest bedroom is comfortably carpeted, providing a warm and inviting space for family or guests. Step outside to the expansive backyard, which boasts an open deck area—ideal for outdoor gatherings or enjoying quiet moments in your private retreat. With no rear neighbors, you can relish in the tranquility and privacy this property offers. The shed in the back provides additional storage, perfect for garden tools or outdoor equipment. This home combines comfort and functionality with easy access to local amenities, parks, and the beautiful Navarre Beach. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this delightful property your own!

2. 2026-05-14
   historical Contingent 1530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1530 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a spacious 0.553-acre lot in Navarre. This residence features a thoughtfully designed split floor plan that optimizes space and functionality, making it an ideal choice for a variety of lifestyles. As you enter, you’ll immediately notice the elegant wood-look LVP flooring that flows seamlessly throughout the main living areas, offering both durability and a modern aesthetic. The open-concept layout encompasses the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a cohesive space perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The vaulted ceilings enhance the sense of space, allowing for abundant natural light to fill the home. The kitchen is well-appointed and features a generous layout, complemented by a large laundry area that also serves as a walk-in pantry, ensuring ample storage for all your culinary needs. The guest bedroom is comfortably carpeted, providing a warm and inviting space for family or guests. Step outside to the expansive backyard, which boasts an open deck area—ideal for outdoor gatherings or enjoying quiet moments in your private retreat. With no rear neighbors, you can relish in the tranquility and privacy this property offers. The shed in the back provides additional storage, perfect for garden tools or outdoor equipment. This home combines comfort and functionality with easy access to local amenities, parks, and the beautiful Navarre Beach. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this delightful property your own!

3. 2026-04-01
   listed $150,000 Active 1530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1530 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a spacious 0.553-acre lot in Navarre. This residence features a thoughtfully designed split floor plan that optimizes space and functionality, making it an ideal choice for a variety of lifestyles. As you enter, you’ll immediately notice the elegant wood-look LVP flooring that flows seamlessly throughout the main living areas, offering both durability and a modern aesthetic. The open-concept layout encompasses the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a cohesive space perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The vaulted ceilings enhance the sense of space, allowing for abundant natural light to fill the home. The kitchen is well-appointed and features a generous layout, complemented by a large laundry area that also serves as a walk-in pantry, ensuring ample storage for all your culinary needs. The guest bedroom is comfortably carpeted, providing a warm and inviting space for family or guests. Step outside to the expansive backyard, which boasts an open deck area—ideal for outdoor gatherings or enjoying quiet moments in your private retreat. With no rear neighbors, you can relish in the tranquility and privacy this property offers. The shed in the back provides additional storage, perfect for garden tools or outdoor equipment. This home combines comfort and functionality with easy access to local amenities, parks, and the beautiful Navarre Beach. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this delightful property your own!

4. 2026-03-31
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $362 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$883/yr (+$74/mo · 244.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$362
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$962
• After-tax cash flow: $5,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #14641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holley, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NAMLS
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $150,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $150,000 NAMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $362 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.