Aspen Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily · 314 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The inspirational Aspen floor plan boasts three bedrooms, and two full bathrooms - the perfect home layout. The spacious two-car garage can serve as a space to park your cars, or cater to your storage needs by transforming it into a 2.5- or 3-car garage. Opening up the door to your new home, you will come across a decorative bookshelf inside your foyer, that brings that added stylish touch to your home. Just past the bookshelves is the welcoming formal dining room. You will love getting to entertain guests for dinner, since the conversation will stay flowing into the kitchen area. Want more natural light streaming in? You can have a box window seat installed just off the side of the dining, providing extra sunlight. The Aspen kitchen holds exclusive features like industry-leading appliances, designer light fixtures, granite countertops, and flat-panel birch cabinets. You also have a sizable pantry and expansive amount of counterspace to work with, making the space more convenient for you. Down the hall and overlooking the kitchen is the open-concept family room. This living area is a comfortable size with plenty of room for your furniture and your guests. You can also decide to install a gas log fireplace, should you desire to. Convenience does not stop there - in your backyard, you have the option of including a large covered patio for your leisure! Last but not least is your very private Master Bedroom. Your bedroom opens up to your Master Bathroom where your bathtub and. ..

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Box window seat
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BOX WINDOW SEAT
• INDUSTRY LEADING APPLIANCES
• DESIGNER LIGHT FIXTURES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLAT PANEL BIRCH CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,395.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-662 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,342 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,395
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -8.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1020 Star Skye Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+7%)	2mo	$307,040	$174	76
3053 Duskshine Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	2mo	$253,990	$159	74
3073 Duskshine Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	4mo	$314,990	$197	71
1012 Sunlit Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+7%)	2mo	$303,490	$172	69
1013 Daybreak Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+7%)	4mo	$279,990	$158	64
3081 Duskshine Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+8%)	3mo	$338,990	$189	62
1104 Sunlit Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+8%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	60
3016 Duskshine Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+14%)	4mo	$347,990	$185	57
3101 Duskshine Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+14%)	2mo	$296,990	$158	56
3093 Duskshine Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+14%)	2mo	$325,990	$174	56
3077 Duskshine Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+14%)	4mo	$358,990	$191	53
1113 Sunlit Cir	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+11%)	4mo	$313,990	$172	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-101,502
• Equity at exit: $49,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.80×
• Total profit: $-165,701
• Equity at exit: $28,480

Cash invested: $92,231 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 75 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $310,990 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,727
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,941/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,881

Max offer price $233,592

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-434	-5% $-548	+0% $-662	+5% $-776	+10% $-890
Rent	-10% $-824	-5% $-743	+0% $-662	+5% $-581	+10% $-501
Rate	-1.0pp $-496	-0.5pp $-578	base $-662	+0.5pp $-747	+1.0pp $-834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,349
• Closing costs: $9,882
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $299,990 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $299,990 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $299,990 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $299,990 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $299,990 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 301 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 295 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 294 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 292 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 290 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 288 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 287 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 286 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 285 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 284 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 283 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 282 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 281 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 280 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 279 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $299,990 Active 278 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 277 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 276 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 275 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 274 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 273 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 272 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 271 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 270 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 269 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 268 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 267 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 265 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 264 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 263 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 262 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 259 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 257 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 256 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 254 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 252 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 251 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,451
• − Property taxes: −$4,941
• − Insurance: −$1,647
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$9,582
• Taxable loss: −$14,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,366
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Listed $309,990 Zillow