322 Robalo · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$129,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1978 4,886 sqft lot $191/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this inviting two-bedroom, two-bath La Casa home, perfectly situated near the Clubhouse and its array of amenities. Imagine preparing meals in a light, bright kitchen with a pantry, breakfast bar, stylish tiled backsplash, and generous cabinet space. Relax in the cozy living room with an electric fireplace, or open the sliding door to a sunlit Florida room with gleaming ceramic tile floors, leading out to your porch and carport. The guest bedroom offers a spacious double closet, while the guest bath is thoughtfully appointed with a hi-boy commode, tub and shower, a vanity, and a linen chest. Retreat to the expansive primary bedroom, complete with a large walk-in closet and a priva

Key facts

• Pantry
• Tiled backsplash
• Light bright kitchen

Tags

• LIGHT BRIGHT KITCHEN
• PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• TILED BACKSPLASH
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORS
• FLORIDA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey / furnished; Located in a senior community; Road surfaced with asphalt
• Financial info: Total annual HOA/fees approximately $2,292; Taxes reported for 2025
• HOA & community: Community HOA (monthly fee of $191); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard and basketball courts, storage, gated entry, private road, recreational facilities, managed common areas, and laundry; Association approval required; Buyer approval required; Pets allowed: cats

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour guard service (HOA-provided)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; South-facing; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Electric fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located outside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 857 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,615 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.58%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,405
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,044
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 857
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$191
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $290	+0% $253	+5% $216	+10% $180
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $184	+0% $253	+5% $323	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $286	base $253	+0.5pp $220	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $191 · $2,292/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,500 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,500 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,500 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,500 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,500 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,500 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $129,500 Active 1883-char remark
18. 2026-04-30
    historical
19. 2026-01-16
    price $129,500
20. 2025-08-11
    listed $135,000 Active
21. 2025-04-30
    historical
22. 2025-03-28
    price $135,000
23. 2024-10-03
    price $155,900
24. 2024-02-09
    price $189,900
25. 2023-09-28
    listed $205,000 Active
26. 2019-04-01
    soldstatus $122,900
27. 2002-09-13
    soldstatus $68,000
28. 1997-05-13
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − HOA: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable income: $1,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$293
• After-tax cash flow: $2,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+212.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $129,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $129,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $155,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-09 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-28 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $122,900 Public Records
• 2002-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1997-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,740 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.