619 Leicester Ave · Duluth, MN 55803

$339,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1964 10,454 sqft lot Est $244k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this fabulous 4-bedroom, 2-bath Hunters Park split foyer in a fantastic location! The main floor welcomes you with a spacious and comfortable living room featuring vaulted ceilings and new windows that flood the space with natural light. There is a tidy galley-style kitchen with oak cabinetry and white appliances, along with a bright dining area featuring doors leading out to a nice side deck and backyard. The main floor also includes 3 bedrooms and an updated full bath with tile flooring and a tiled tub surround. The lower level offers a large 4th bedroom, a ¾ bath with a tiled walk-in shower, and a nicely sized rec room with a closet that could also be used as a 5th bedr

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• Split foyer
• Tiled walk in shower

Tags

• SPLIT FOYER
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• OAK CABINETRY
• TILED WALK IN SHOWER
• MAINTENANCE FREE SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Congdon Elementary (math 71% / reading 76%, grade A, #41 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 452 students, 20% FRL); Ordean East Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #53 of 258 statewide, top 22%, 989 students, 26% FRL); East High School (math 42% / reading 73%, grade C, #59 of 471 statewide, top 13%, 1,494 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 39% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $266,012 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,648
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Sparkman Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,157 (+3%)	7mo	$250,000	$216	75
552 Park St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,220 (+8%)	10mo	$244,900	$201	62
111 Snively Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,141 (+1%)	22mo	$275,000	$241	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-62,682
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-64,481
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55803

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,554/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,810

Max offer price $318,919

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $-23	+0% $-119	+5% $-215	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-224	+0% $-119	+5% $-14	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $-32	base $-119	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3780 London Rd Duluth, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1312	$3,485	$2.66	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,554 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,680 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$3,554
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,554
• − Management: −$2,554
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$7,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,768
• After-tax cash flow: $343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 71,097
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,662
• Household income: $105,888
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.34%
• Current HPI: 197.6712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — LSAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $339,900 LSAR

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,554 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.