984 Kenbar Ave · Haines City, FL 33844

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2005 6,967 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LISTING PRICE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO PAY THE TOTAL OF ALL LIENS AND COSTS OF SALE , AND SALE PROPERTY AT FULL LISTING PRICE MAY REQUIRE APPROVAL OF SELLER'S LENDER(S0, AND SUCH APPROVAL MAY BE CONDITIONED UPON THE GROSS COMMISSION BEING REDUCED.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Large closet
• Functional layout

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED YARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• LARGE CLOSET
• EXCELLENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,468 students, 42% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $190k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.30%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,361
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $39,962
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,039/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $741	-5% $688	+0% $634	+5% $580	+10% $526
Rent	-10% $453	-5% $543	+0% $634	+5% $724	+10% $815
Rate	-1.0pp $729	-0.5pp $682	base $634	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
945 Kenbar Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1527	$2,051	$1.34	15d	1	0.20mi
3053 Cassidy Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,500	$1.26	25d	1	0.25mi
3108 Cassidy Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1823	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	0.37mi
1109 Ronlin St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$1,981	$1.06	25d	1	0.42mi
3521 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,800	$1.06	13d	1	0.68mi
3707 Eisel Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,065	$1.47	16d	1	0.77mi
3815 Whitney Way Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,150	$1.22	16d	1	0.81mi
4014 Alissa Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1598	$2,250	$1.41	25d	1	0.83mi
3593 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	25d	1	0.84mi
3593 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	12d	1	0.84mi
5280 Maddie Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2024	$2,300	$1.14	21d	1	0.89mi
4629 Bernard Blvd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$2,300	$1.09	25d	1	0.89mi
5309 Maddie Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	0.89mi
5268 Maddie Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,600	$1.39	23d	1	0.90mi
4373 Deleon St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,250	$1.21	25d	1	0.95mi
106 Reineke Rd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,495	$1.11	5d	1	0.98mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	25d	1	1.07mi
4209 Deleon St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1863	$2,450	$1.32	16d	1	1.14mi
2518 Trinidad Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,150	$1.17	25d	1	1.14mi
3329 Aruba Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,200	$1.32	25d	1	1.30mi
2621 Trinidad Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	1.33mi
2393 Paulette Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,875	$1.21	5d	1	1.43mi
1229 Forest Gate Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	16d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   price $190,000
3. 2026-03-13
   price $219,900
4. 2026-03-02
   listed $244,900 Active
5. 2009-07-27
   soldstatus $70,000 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   LISTING PRICE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO PAY THE TOTAL OF ALL LIENS AND COSTS OF SALE , AND SALE PROPERTY AT FULL LISTING PRICE MAY REQUIRE APPROVAL OF SELLER'S LENDER(S0, AND SUCH APPROVAL MAY BE CONDITIONED UPON THE GROSS COMMISSION BEING REDUCED.

6. 2009-02-03
   listed $89,900 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   LISTING PRICE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO PAY THE TOTAL OF ALL LIENS AND COSTS OF SALE , AND SALE PROPERTY AT FULL LISTING PRICE MAY REQUIRE APPROVAL OF SELLER'S LENDER(S0, AND SUCH APPROVAL MAY BE CONDITIONED UPON THE GROSS COMMISSION BEING REDUCED.

7. 2006-06-23
   soldstatus $233,000
8. 2006-06-09
   soldstatus $233,000 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   BRAND NEW NEVERLIVED IN. BEAUTIFUL FLOOR PLAN. CLOSE TO SHOPPING AND MAJOR HIGHWAYS

9. 2005-12-21
   listed $224,900 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   BRAND NEW NEVERLIVED IN. BEAUTIFUL FLOOR PLAN. CLOSE TO SHOPPING AND MAJOR HIGHWAYS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,039 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$538/yr (+$45/mo · 51.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,039
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $4,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,144
• After-tax cash flow: $6,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-27 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-03 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $233,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-09 Sold (MLS) $233,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-21 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,039 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.