29526 Winton Wood Way · Houston, TX 77386

$260,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,425 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2008 5,039 sqft lot $107/sqft · 12% below area Est $294k · 12% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home on a quiet Culdesac featuring a desirable floor plan with the primary suite conveniently located downstairs. Upstairs offers 3 generously sized secondary bedrooms, including one oversized bedroom large enough to function as a second primary suite with direct access to the upstairs bathroom. A large gameroom provides the perfect flex space for a media room, playroom, home office, or second living area. Enjoy cozy evenings by the fireplace and peaceful mornings in the charming breakfast room at the front of the home, the perfect spot to enjoy your coffee with natural light pouring in. Situated on a greenbelt lot with no back neighbors

Key facts

• 5,039 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2008

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Disclosures: Municipal Utility District Disclosure, Seller Disclosure
• HOA & community: Community association managed by Crest Management; Annual association fee of $445

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2008; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencing; Greenbelt lot feature; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Vanity
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ford El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 901 students, 68% FRL); Irons J H (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 1,344 students, 52% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 34% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,142 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,338
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -11.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29491 Forest Floor Ln	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,442 (+1%)	1mo	$300,000	$123	84
2325 Garden Square Path	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,465 (+2%)	0mo	$299,999	$122	84
29474 Forest Floor Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,442 (+1%)	5mo	$295,000	$121	80
29464 Graceful Path Way	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,494 (+3%)	5mo	$275,000	$110	75
2269 Garden Square Path	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,317 (-4%)	2mo	$308,000	$133	73
2230 Garden Square Path	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,434 (+0%)	4mo	$319,000	$131	73
28827 Sedgefield St	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-3%)	2mo	$299,900	$128	62
29207 Fox Fountain Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (-8%)	6mo	$230,000	$104	59
2614 Spring Chase Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,737 (+13%)	2mo	$314,900	$115	58
2119 Old Ox Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,685 (+11%)	1mo	$349,000	$130	53
2528 Magnolia Fair Way	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,119 (-13%)	2mo	$279,000	$132	45
2654 Magnolia Fair Way	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,094 (-14%)	5mo	$290,000	$138	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-62,617
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-90,515
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77386

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$605 /mo · $7,256/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $213,142

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-192	+0% $-265	+5% $-339	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-450	-5% $-358	+0% $-265	+5% $-173	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-199	base $-265	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29350 Winton Wood Way Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2545	$2,283	$0.90	26d	1	0.23mi
2519 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	19d	1	0.40mi
2438 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	26d	1	0.40mi
2607 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,650	$1.08	45d	1	0.44mi
2623 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,948	$1.09	21d	1	0.45mi
29307 Atherstone St Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,745	$0.99	23d	1	0.53mi
29418 Fox River Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,779	$0.93	4d	1	0.66mi
2115 Mercoal Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	2484	$2,291	$0.92	0d	1	0.87mi
2011 Rycroft Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1700	$1,949	$1.15	21d	1	0.99mi
29311 Legends Hill Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,901	$1.08	0d	1	1.02mi
3330 Legends Mill Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	2310	$2,175	$0.94	14d	1	1.11mi
29735 Legends Green Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	2180	$3,300	$1.51	26d	1	1.18mi
3506 Cactus Creek Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2000	$1,950	$0.97	45d	1	1.29mi
30619 Victoria Estates Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$2,200	$0.91	26d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $260,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $260,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $260,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    listed $260,000 Active 785-char remark
13. 2025-12-10
    historical
14. 2025-11-05
    price $280,000
15. 2025-10-06
    price $285,000
16. 2025-09-22
    listed $290,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,256 · $605/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,256 · $605/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$7,256
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,811
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,980
• Household income: $132,469
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1115.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.74%
• Current HPI: 226.3729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $290,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,256 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.