3904 Moana Way #24 · Modesto, CA 95355

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $89k · 41% over ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY NICE OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 BR/2 BATHW/ LIVINGROOM, FAMILY ROOM DINING ROOM LAUNDRY AREA IN HOME LOW MAINTENANCE YARD W/ GAZEBO + STORAGE SHED. ROOF RECOATED IN 2004 SHOW AND SELL THANK YOU

Key facts

• Gated community
• Gazebo
• Spa

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GAZEBO
• STORAGE SHED
• POOL
• SPA
• CLUB HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Off-street parking; Attached parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual gas meter; Cable connected; DSL available; 220V in kitchen and laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home (double wide); Updated/remodeled; Built in 1974
• Construction: Other roof
• Exterior features: Backyard; Fence; Storage structure; Close to clubhouse; Irregular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone and slab countertops; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Double oven; Gas cooktop; Electric cooktop; Free-standing refrigerator; Free-standing electric oven/range; Hood over range; Self-clean oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Simulated wood; Tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tile and tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Central cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Covered porch with porch steps and railing; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet with hookups (electric); Inside laundry (in kitchen/inside room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $125k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.24%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,608
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3908 Moana Way	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	5mo	$65,000	$52	95
3908 Waimea Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	8mo	$57,000	$46	84
3816 Moana Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$77,000	$57	83
3817 Moana Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	7mo	$77,500	$67	78
3905 Moana Way #33	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,236 (-1%)	18mo	$108,000	$87	77
3833 Surfside Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	1mo	$99,900	$71	75
3904 Surfside Dr #73	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	15mo	$112,000	$83	72
3820 Surfside Dr #140	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	9mo	$105,000	$75	67
3933 Lahaina Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	14mo	$55,000	$41	66
3805 Moana Way	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,420 (+14%)	21mo	$110,300	$78	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $23,222
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $67,068
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $823	-5% $779	+0% $736	+5% $693	+10% $650
Rent	-10% $576	-5% $656	+0% $736	+5% $816	+10% $896
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $768	base $736	+0.5pp $704	+1.0pp $671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	22d	1	0.84mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	14d	1	0.86mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	14d	1	0.94mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	22d	1	0.94mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	14d	1	1.07mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	14d	1	1.10mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	14d	1	1.13mi
1313 Floyd Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,725	$2.16	14d	2	1.33mi
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	24d	1	1.40mi
2405 Vera Cruz Dr Apt C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$1,675	$1.82	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2006-05-19
    soldstatus $42,000 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    VERY NICE OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 BR/2 BATHW/ LIVINGROOM, FAMILY ROOM DINING ROOM LAUNDRY AREA IN HOME LOW MAINTENANCE YARD W/ GAZEBO + STORAGE SHED. ROOF RECOATED IN 2004 SHOW AND SELL THANK YOU

18. 2006-04-15
    historical 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    VERY NICE OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 BR/2 BATHW/ LIVINGROOM, FAMILY ROOM DINING ROOM LAUNDRY AREA IN HOME LOW MAINTENANCE YARD W/ GAZEBO + STORAGE SHED. ROOF RECOATED IN 2004 SHOW AND SELL THANK YOU

19. 2005-09-28
    listed $52,000 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    VERY NICE OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 BR/2 BATHW/ LIVINGROOM, FAMILY ROOM DINING ROOM LAUNDRY AREA IN HOME LOW MAINTENANCE YARD W/ GAZEBO + STORAGE SHED. ROOF RECOATED IN 2004 SHOW AND SELL THANK YOU

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,747
• After-tax cash flow: $7,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2006-05-19 Sold (MLS) $42,000 MLSListings
• 2006-04-15 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2005-09-28 Listed $52,000 MLSListings